Novo Nordisk Pours Billions Into Europe’s Biotech Future as Pill Sales Surge and Patent Cliffs Loom

Novo Nordisk Foundation and Novo Holdings commit €60M to obesity treatments and €5B to AI/quantum funds; stock down 29% YoY but up from lows as generic semaglutide pressure and oral competition intensify.

The Novo Nordisk ecosystem is channelling vast resources into European innovation even as the drugmaker navigates mounting competitive pressure and a stock that remains more than a third below its peak. The Novo Nordisk Foundation and its investment arm Novo Holdings have committed to two major funds targeting areas from obesity and diabetes therapies to artificial intelligence and quantum technology.

The foundation has injected 450 million Danish kroner — roughly €60 million — into the CardioMetabolic Bridge, a pan-European initiative designed to accelerate development of treatments for obesity, type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease. The first laboratory opens in London this month, with additional sites in Italy and Germany to follow. Separately, Novo Holdings is backing the Scaleup Europe Fund, which aims to raise €5 billion alongside the Danish sovereign fund Eifo. The fund will invest in high-growth European companies working in AI, quantum tech and biotechnology.

While those long-term bets position Novo Nordisk for the future, the immediate picture on the equity side remains mixed. Shares closed at €41.17 on Friday, down 1.4%, leaving the stock roughly 29% lower over the past 12 months. That marks a recovery of around 36% from the year’s low of €30.25 in March, but the gap to the 52-week high of €61.20 — hit in July 2025 — is still substantial.

Goldman Sachs recently nudged its price target for Novo Nordisk up to 310 Danish kroner from 305, though it kept a “Neutral” rating, citing a return on equity of 22.5% and a gross margin of 75.4% as solid but not compelling enough to upgrade. Another warning flag: the relative strength index has climbed to 70, signalling the stock may be slightly overbought after its recent rally.

A far bigger challenge looms in the generics arena. The Indian patent for semaglutide — the active ingredient behind Ozempic and Wegovy — expired in March 2026, allowing local manufacturers to produce cheap copycats. In Canada, Apotex launched a generic version of Ozempic as early as May. Core patents in the US and Europe hold until 2032 and 2031 respectively, but the pressure from emerging markets signals the direction of travel.

Meanwhile, the oral segment is becoming fiercely contested. Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy tablet topped 3 million prescriptions in just over five months since its US launch in January 2026. Yet weekly script volumes have slipped recently, dropping to roughly 117,000 in the 25th calendar week. Adding to the heat, Eli Lilly’s oral rival Foundayo was added to CVS Caremark’s reimbursement list on June 1, 2026, tightening the squeeze in the fast-growing pill market.

A powerful catalyst arrived on July 1 when Medicare began covering Wegovy injections for senior patients. Previously forced to pay the full cost, eligible recipients now face a monthly copay of just $50. Roughly 10% of Medicare beneficiaries meet the medical criteria, unlocking a vast new pool of potential users. Crucially, the oral Wegovy appears to attract mostly first-time obesity patients rather than cannibalising the injection franchise.

To support the stock, Novo Nordisk is running a buyback programme worth up to 15 billion Danish kroner through February 2027. The company now holds nearly 1% of its own outstanding shares. Still, management forecasts an operating profit decline of 4% to 12% for the full year 2026, and critics point to growing pricing pressure in the US alongside Eli Lilly’s relentless market share gains.

All eyes will be on the second-quarter results due August 5. Investors will scrutinise whether the Medicare tailwind is translating into sustainable revenue growth, and whether the retention rate for the Wegovy tablet proves high enough to lock in recurring income. For now, Novo Nordisk is juggling a promising pill rollout and a new public payer channel with the unrelenting advance of generics and rivals.