Novo Nordisk Pauses €1.1bn Danish Factory as Oral Obesity Pill Fuels Analyst Optimism

Novo Nordisk halts billion-euro expansion in Denmark as it pivots to oral semaglutide; Q1 underlying sales fell 4% despite headline surge, but obesity pipeline data fuels bullish analyst forecasts.

Novo Nordisk has pulled the plug on a massive new production facility in Odense, Denmark, shelving a billion-euro expansion plan as the Danish drugmaker pivots hard toward its oral weight-loss franchise. The decision, which will scrap more than half of the planned 150 jobs at the site and relegate the premises to warehouse use, comes just days after the company posted first-quarter results that looked far stronger than they actually were.

Behind the headline revenue surge of 32% — to 96.8 billion Danish kroner on a currency-adjusted basis — lies a one-off accounting gain of 26.8 billion kroner linked to the US 340B drug-pricing program. Strip out that benefit and the picture turns sour: adjusted sales fell 4% to 70.1 billion kroner, while underlying operating profit shrank. Adjusted earnings per share landed at 6.63 kroner, revealing an operating business under pressure from intensifying competition.

Clinical Firepower in the Obesity Pipeline

What the market is betting on instead is the oral version of semaglutide, marketed as the Wegovy pill. Fresh phase 3 data presented at the European Congress on Obesity in Istanbul showed early responders achieving an average 21.6% weight loss over 64 weeks. Meanwhile, a separate analysis from the OASIS 4 and STEP UP trials indicated that roughly 27% of patients on a 7.2 mg high dose shed at least 15% of their body weight within 24 weeks. More than two million prescriptions have already been written since the pill’s US launch in January, and nearly 80% of trial participants reported measurable improvements in physical fitness.

That clinical momentum caught the eye of research firm Hedgeye, which initiated coverage on May 13 with an upside projection of 52% to 117%. The analysts argue that the stock’s current price-to-earnings ratio of roughly 13.6 — well below the sector average of 16.8 — is a mispricing of Novo Nordisk’s growth runway. Hedgeye forecasts 3.6 million monthly oral semaglutide prescriptions by the end of 2026, supporting a per-share profit of $5.06, sharply above the consensus estimate of $3.55.

Portfolio Clean-up and Litigation Detente

While doubling down on metabolic disease, the company has been shedding peripheral assets. In mid-May, it offloaded its Parkinson’s disease cell-therapy program, STEM-PD — which had secured FDA fast-track designation — to the biotech firm Cellular Intelligence. Financial terms were not disclosed, but Novo Nordisk will receive an equity stake and potential milestone payments. The exit completes a retreat from cell therapy that began in late 2025, with the Parkinson program being the last remaining piece.

On the legal front, the Danish group settled its patent dispute with US telehealth platform Hims & Hers. Under the agreement, Hims & Hers will sell only the branded versions of Ozempic and Wegovy and drop its own copycat versions. The move removes a key source of uncertainty for investors worried about erosion of Novo Nordisk’s US market share.

Market Mending but Caution Persists

Shares have rebounded sharply from a March low of €30.48, now changing hands near €40.42 — a gain of roughly 21% over the past 30 days. Technically, a sustained close above $47 would trigger a buy signal, with the next target near $54, according to Hedgeye’s analysis.

Yet the stock remains about 30% below its year-ago level, a hangover from patent expirations looming in China in 2026, where cheaper generics are expected to flood the market. The coming weeks will bring fresh US prescription data for the oral Wegovy pill — a weekly indicator that analysts will watch closely to see whether the bullish narrative holds.