Novo Nordisk Finds Footing as Oral Wegovy Data Bolsters Recovery from Steep Sell-Off

Novo Nordisk's oral amycretin achieves 21.6% weight loss in OASIS 4 trial, boosting shares 13.79% from March low. Jefferies warns of cannibalization risk from oral Wegovy and Eli Lilly competition.

Novo Nordisk is leaning on fresh clinical ammunition to defend its comeback. New phase 3 results from the OASIS 4 trial, presented at the European Congress on Obesity in Istanbul, show that nearly a third of patients responded early to the oral amycretin pill, shedding an average of 13.2% of body weight within 16 weeks. By the end of the study, that group had reached 21.6% — evidence that the oral therapy can sustain long-term effects.

The data go beyond sheer weight loss. Eight out of ten patients who reported physical limitations at the start doubled their mobility, gaining ease in daily tasks such as bending or standing for extended periods. The company also highlighted benefits across menopause stages, along with early signals of heart protection and fewer migraine episodes. For a stock nursing a 34% decline over the past twelve months, these findings offer a fundamental anchor.

Shares Climb from the March Low

The Copenhagen-based drugmaker’s shares have staged a modest recovery since hitting a trough in March. Thursday’s close at €39.27 marks a 13.79% gain over the past month. The stock has climbed back above its 50-day moving average, though it remains 44% below its 52-week high of €70.13. Year to date, the decline still sits at 12.10%.

Investors are watching whether the OASIS 4 data can stabilize confidence after a brutal period. The company’s own quarterly report provided partial relief: adjusted net revenue fell 10% to 70.1 billion Danish kroner, but the decline was less severe than many had feared. Adjusted earnings per share slipped 3% to 6.63 kroner, again beating the worst-case scenarios that had been priced in.

Jefferies Cautions on Cannibalization Risk

Jefferies remains on the sidelines with a “neutral” rating and a price target of 270 Danish kroner. The bank upgraded the stock from “underperform” to “hold” in February and now believes the sharp earnings revisions have largely been absorbed. Yet its analysts warn that the 2026 targets may be conservative, especially for oral Wegovy and Medicare contributions in the obesity space.

One key risk: oral Wegovy could eat into existing Novo Nordisk products more aggressively than the market expects. Eli Lilly’s Orforglipron, which could hit the U.S. market as early as April, adds further competitive pressure. Jefferies emphasizes that the overall trajectory of GLP-1 prescriptions in the U.S. matters more than any single product launch.

Pipeline Becomes the Defining Test

The next catalyst is CagriSema, awaiting approval for both obesity and diabetes. The REDEFINE-4 head-to-head study against Lilly’s Zepbound is seen as a critical milestone. Jefferies’ base case assumes non-inferiority, not overwhelming superiority. Beyond CagriSema, the pipeline includes Amycretin and UBT251, each targeting broader hormonal profiles.

CEO Mike Doustdar called the recent inflection a turning point. Wegovy now accounts for 65% of new U.S. prescriptions. The board raised its 2026 guidance, now expecting a currency-adjusted revenue and profit decline of 4% to 12% — a narrower range than before. First-quarter revenue rose 6% on a currency-neutral basis, led by 23% growth in EUCAN and 22% in APAC. The obesity business expanded even faster, despite lower prices.

Valuation Discount and Insider Moves

At 13.6 times forward earnings, Novo Nordisk trades below the average for large-cap healthcare stocks. That discount reflects the slide in financial performance. The stock now needs two confirmations: robust U.S. GLP-1 prescription volumes and pipeline data that keep the gap with Eli Lilly from widening. If those conditions hold, the valuation has room to expand. If not, the recent rally may prove to be little more than a repair job.

In a minor corporate governance note, two individuals close to CFO Karsten Munk Knudsen each received 50 B-shares as a gift, valued at roughly 14,700 Danish kroner per transaction. The disclosure adds a human element to a period dominated by clinical readouts and margin pressure.