Novo Nordisk Fights on Two Fronts: MASH Data and Oral Wegovy Pricing Aim to Revive Market Momentum

Novo Nordisk unveils promising MASH trial results and aggressive oral Wegovy pricing amid a 45% stock drop, aiming to reclaim growth with clinical and commercial catalysts.

Investors watching Novo Nordisk’s stock, which has shed nearly 45% from its 52-week peak, are suddenly weighing two distinct catalysts that could reverse the slide. The Danish drugmaker is simultaneously rolling out fresh clinical evidence in liver disease and executing an aggressive pricing play for its oral weight-loss pill — a dual push designed to expand Semaglutide’s reach beyond the established obesity market.

On the commercial side, a survey of nine US physicians points to an emerging trend: patients are switching from compounded GLP-1 knockoffs back to branded oral formulations. The lowest monthly price for NovoCare’s Wegovy pill stands at $149 in the self-pay model, narrowing the gap with cheaper compound alternatives. Higher doses run between $199 and $299 depending on subscription length. The result, the survey suggests, is a return of patients to regulated distribution channels, a development that could help stabilize revenues in a market undercut by illicit competition.

The move is backed by regulatory muscle. The FDA proposed late last month to remove Semaglutide and Tirzepatide from the 503B bulk substance list, making legal production of compound copies harder. That pressure on the grey market plays directly into Novo Nordisk’s hands, especially as Wegovy benefits from established brand trust and data on cardiovascular protection — an edge over newcomer Foundayo from Eli Lilly, which lacks similar outcomes.

More than two million prescriptions for the oral Wegovy have already been filled, with around 207,000 new scripts added each week. The first-quarter financials underscore the scale: net revenues hit roughly DKK 96.8 billion, with operating profit at DKK 59.6 billion. Management raised its 2026 guidance to a range of minus 4% to minus 12% revenue growth at constant exchange rates, a band that leaves room for operational improvement.

But the clinical pipeline is where the longer-term story lies. From May 27 to 30 in Barcelona, at the European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL) congress, Novo Nordisk unveils full results from the ESSENCE Phase 3 trial. The study enrolled 1,200 adults with non-cirrhotic MASH and advanced liver fibrosis (Stage 2 or 3). Among patients receiving Semaglutide, 37% showed an improvement in fibrosis without worsening of steatohepatitis, versus 18% in the placebo arm. The data suggest the GLP-1 agonist can reduce liver inflammation and even reverse scar tissue — a potential breakthrough for a disease affecting an estimated 250 million people worldwide, nine in ten of whom are undiagnosed.

No approved drug exists for MASH, the inflammatory and dangerous form of fatty liver that can lead to cirrhosis, liver failure, and cancer. Novo Nordisk’s data package includes subgroup analyses for Japanese patients and menopausal women, two populations often underrepresented in liver research. An ESSENCE liver safety analysis confirms Semaglutide remains tolerable even with impaired liver function — a reassurance for clinicians. The company plans a five-year extension study to test durability of histological improvements, and is already exploring combination therapies for advanced stages, including compensated cirrhosis.

The MASH presentation arrives at a strategic juncture. Just weeks ago, at the European Obesity Congress, Novo Nordisk released subanalyses from the OASIS-4 and STEP-UP trials showing strong weight reduction and improved physical function with the oral Wegovy pill, which also outperformed competitor Orforglipron on weight loss, tolerability, and patient preference.

The broader strategy is becoming clearer: Novo Nordisk aims to extend GLP-1 therapies across multiple indications — cardiovascular, kidney, and now liver. The stock closed Friday at €38.26, roughly 45% below the 52-week high of €70.13. Year to date, shares have fallen 14.4%; over 12 months the drop is 36.6%. The relative strength index of 47.3 indicates neutral territory. Yet the rebound from the March low of €30.48 suggests some investors are positioning for a turning point.

The key test in Barcelona is whether the full MASH data can inject new momentum into the Semaglutide franchise. The medical case is strengthening. The market, for now, is waiting for share prices to follow. The next question for Novo Nordisk is whether the early gains from oral pricing — drawing customers out of the grey market — can translate into durable prescription volumes without squeezing margins. The company is betting that both clinical depth and pricing discipline can restore investor confidence.