Novo Nordisk Faces Critical Test Amid Rivalry and New Product Launch

Novo Nordisk DK0062498333

As Novo Nordisk prepares to release its quarterly earnings, investors are weighing conflicting signals from the obesity drug market. The Danish pharmaceutical giant is navigating intense competition from Eli Lilly while early data suggests a surprisingly robust launch for its new oral treatment. The upcoming financial report on February 4, 2026, will be pivotal in determining whether the company can sustain its growth trajectory.

A fundamental analysis reveals a significant valuation disparity between the two leading players. Currently, Novo Nordisk shares trade at an expected price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 18. This positions the stock as notably more affordable compared to Eli Lilly, which commands a multiple of around 32.5. Since the start of the year, Novo Nordisk's equity has already appreciated by over 20 percent, with its most recent closing price at €53.79.

The previous quarterly update delivered mixed results, with profit exceeding expectations but revenue falling short. Consequently, the market is keenly focused on the performance metrics for the crucial final quarter.

Competitive Pressures Mount

Analysts are highlighting increased competitive risks. On Monday, BMO Capital Markets raised its price target for Novo Nordisk's American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) from $47 to $57. However, the firm maintained its "Market Perform" rating. This cautious stance is attributed to a tightening competitive landscape in the obesity treatment sector.

The research points to largely stagnant prescription numbers for the injectable weight-loss drug Wegovy in the fourth quarter of 2025. In a direct comparison, Eli Lilly's rival product, Zepbound, achieved growth of 17 percent during the same period. In response to these dynamics, BMO has revised its revenue forecasts for Wegovy downward for the current fiscal year.

Oral Treatment Emerges as a Bright Spot

In contrast, the January 2026 market debut of the oral version of Wegovy is generating positive momentum. Initial prescription data is being interpreted by market observers as evidence of strong demand:
* Launch Phase: Approximately 3,100 prescriptions were registered in the initial days following release.
* Rapid Acceleration: This figure jumped to over 18,000 prescriptions during the first full week of availability.

This trajectory indicates that the tablet may not merely shift existing patients from the injectable form but could potentially expand the total addressable market. A supportive factor is the projection that, through the integration of new manufacturing facilities, supply capacity in the United States could double by mid-2026. This expansion would alleviate the supply constraints that have previously hampered availability.

The central question for investors remains: Can Novo Nordisk leverage the promising start of its oral therapy to successfully counterbalance the competitive pressures and meet growth expectations in its forthcoming earnings release?

@ boerse-global.de | DK0062498333 NOVO