Novo Nordisk Bets on Buybacks and Pipeline Data as Prescription Boom Meets Washington Pricing Pressure

Novo Nordisk's oral obesity therapy drives 2M prescriptions in 5 months, but shares tumble 48% from peak amid US price control fears and GLP-1 market crowding.

Two million prescriptions in five months would ordinarily be cause for celebration at a pharmaceutical company. For Novo Nordisk, however, the tally has done little to arrest a stock slide that has erased nearly half the value from last year’s peak. The Danish drugmaker’s oral obesity therapy has stormed out of the gate since its US launch in January, yet the shares remain locked in a downdraft driven by fears of American price controls and an increasingly crowded GLP-1 arena.

Against that backdrop, Novo Nordisk has stepped up its buyback programme as a show of confidence. Since launching the repurchase scheme on 4 February 2026, the company has acquired 17.89 million B-shares at an average price of 263.47 Danish kroner each, spending roughly 4.71 billion kroner. In the final days of May alone, it bought nearly 840,000 additional shares at prices ranging from 286.16 to 293.42 kroner. The accumulated holdings now stand at 35.07 million B-shares, representing 0.8% of total share capital. While buybacks can support earnings per share, they do not address the structural challenges weighing on the stock: pricing policy, political scrutiny and pipeline uncertainty.

The operational momentum is undeniable. In its second week on the market, the new oral therapy generated 18,410 prescriptions, dwarfing the roughly 3,700 weekly scripts Eli Lilly’s rival product Foundayo recorded in its most recently reported period. Yet Novo Nordisk’s shares closed Monday down 3%, and they slipped further on Tuesday to €36.83. On a trailing 12?month basis, the stock has tumbled roughly 42%, and from its 52?week high of €70.13 it is now 48% lower. Year-to-date, the decline stands at 15.44%, according to Tradegate pricing, where the shares changed hands at €37.78 on Tuesday.

The source of the pressure lies less in the clinic than in Washington. Investors are fixated on a potential “most?favoured?nation” pricing framework that the US government could apply to blockbuster therapies such as Ozempic and Wegovy. Such a regime would cap reimbursement rates and directly compress margins. New state-level agreements under the same principle have already pushed monthly out-of-pocket costs for obesity treatments below $350, widening patient access but chilling manufacturer pricing power. Novo Nordisk is responding by expanding its own digital direct-to-patient channels to reduce reliance on traditional insurance models.

That strategic pivot comes amid an extraordinary valuation disconnect. Proprietary models such as GuruFocus’s “GF Value” peg the fair worth of Novo Nordisk’s American Depositary Receipts at roughly $137 – against a current ADR price of $44.07, an implied discount of about 68%. The company’s return on equity of 71.4% suggests fundamentals remain robust, reinforcing the view that the sell-off is primarily a macro?political phenomenon rather than a reflection of deteriorating business health.

Technically, the picture is mixed. The stock has clawed above its 50?day moving average but remains firmly below the 200?day line, and the relative strength index at 71.6 indicates the recent bounce may be overextended in the near term.

All eyes now turn to New Orleans. From 5 to 8 June, Novo Nordisk will present 40 scientific abstracts at the American Diabetes Association’s Scientific Sessions. The centrepiece will be Phase 3 data from the REIMAGINE programme for CagriSema, a fixed?dose combination, alongside early?stage results for the once?weekly injectable Zenagamtide. Both candidates are critical to the company’s long?term positioning in the cardiometabolic market. On Sunday 7 June, Novo Nordisk will host a dedicated investor event to discuss the pipeline and the scientific output from the conference.

Potent clinical data could shift the narrative from Washington’s pricing battles back to the science – and remind the market that Novo Nordisk’s growth story does not rest solely on its current generation of weight?loss drugs.