Nordex Shares Surge to Multi-Year High as First-Quarter Margins Blow Past Expectations

Nordex shares surge 6.2% to €47.58 as Q1 EBITDA jumps 64% to €130.7M, beating consensus; EBITDA margin expands to 8.2% amid strategic shift to higher-margin turbine sales.

The wind turbine manufacturer's stock hit levels not seen since 2002 on Monday, as investors cheered a dramatic improvement in profitability that caught even the most bullish analysts off guard. Nordex shares climbed as much as 10 percent in early XETRA trading before settling 6.2 percent higher at €47.58, cementing the stock's status as one of the MDAX's best performers this year with a gain of more than 100 percent since January.

Profitability Takes Center Stage

The headline numbers from Nordex's first-quarter report tell only part of the story. Revenue rose 10.6 percent to €1.59 billion, broadly in line with expectations. The real fireworks came further down the income statement: EBITDA surged 64 percent to €130.7 million, handily beating the analyst consensus of €112 million. The EBITDA margin jumped to 8.2 percent from 5.5 percent a year earlier, a gain of 2.7 percentage points that Richard Dawson of Berenberg Bank described as unexpectedly strong.

Net income skyrocketed from €7.9 million to €53.6 million, a near-sevenfold increase that underscores the operating leverage now working in Nordex's favor. The company's project business delivered segment EBIT of €167.4 million, up 58.5 percent, while the service arm posted an EBIT margin of 19.2 percent, up from 16.8 percent.

Fewer Turbines, Better Prices

The order book tells a nuanced story of strategic discipline. Project order intake fell 14 percent to 1,869 megawatts compared with a strong year-ago quarter, but average selling prices rose to €0.91 million per megawatt from €0.87 million. Nordex is effectively selling less capacity at higher margins — a trade-off the market appears to welcome.

Service orders, by contrast, jumped 73.6 percent, contributing to a total order backlog of €17.0 billion at the end of March, up from €13.5 billion a year earlier. The project-specific backlog stood at €10.5 billion, providing roughly 18 months of production visibility, according to Guido Hoymann of Bankhaus Metzler, who raised his price target to €49 from €39.

Analyst Divide Widens Despite Strong Results

The earnings beat has not silenced the skeptics. Berenberg maintained its buy rating with a €50 price target, and Goldman Sachs sits just below at €49.60. But Bernstein Research and RBC Capital Markets remain cautious, with targets of €40 and €38 respectively — levels that imply significant downside from current prices. The average analyst target of €32.88 for Aixtron, another high-flying MDAX name that fell 5.2 percent on Monday, serves as a cautionary tale for momentum-driven rallies.

CEO José Luis Blanco confirmed the full-year guidance: revenue between €8.2 billion and €9.0 billion, with an EBITDA margin of 8.0 to 11.0 percent. The company has already cleared the lower end of that margin range in the first quarter, lending credibility to the forecast.

Cash Flow and Balance Sheet

Free cash flow came in at negative €98.1 million, which Nordex attributed to working capital normalization. The net cash position remains comfortable at €1.52 billion. The company installed 1,155 megawatts across 14 countries during the quarter, up from 1,046 megawatts in 12 countries a year earlier, with Europe accounting for 86 percent of installations.

Broader Market Context

Monday's trading revealed a clear pattern in the MDAX: companies delivering earnings surprises are rewarded, while those lacking catalysts or sporting stretched valuations face punishment. Nordex stands firmly in the first camp, alongside Gerresheimer, which gained 4.7 percent after creditors approved a debt extension, and Aroundtown, up 4.6 percent following its increased stake in Grand City Properties.

The stock's ability to hold most of its gains after touching €50 — a 52-week high — suggests genuine investor conviction rather than speculative froth. Whether the rally has further to run depends on Nordex's ability to sustain its margin improvement through the remainder of the year, a question that will keep analysts and traders watching the next quarterly report with unusual intensity.