Nokia Stock’s 114% Surge Faces a Two-Front Test: Earnings and Macro Data

After a 114% rally, Nokia shares dip 7%. Optical networking growth and AI infrastructure narrative face scrutiny from upcoming macro data and Q2 earnings.

After a blistering 114% year-to-date rally, Nokia shares hit a speed bump last week, sliding nearly 7% as investors took profits and reassessed the Finnish network equipment maker’s valuation. The stock closed Friday at €11.93, a modest daily gain of roughly 1%, but the broader picture reveals a pause: the current price sits about 20% below the June peak of €14.97.

The question now is whether this consolidation is a healthy breather or the start of a deeper pullback. The answer depends on two forces converging in the coming days — a thicket of macroeconomic releases and the company’s own quarterly report due in July.

The Optical Networking Tailwind

What powered the rally in the first place was not the legacy telecom gear business but the optical networking segment. In the first quarter of 2026, Nokia’s optical unit grew 20% year-over-year, and revenue from AI and cloud customers jumped 49%. A recent project encapsulates the thesis: Nokia is connecting a data center in North Dakota to the Chicago metropolitan area with an initial capacity of 100 Tb/s, scalable to 400 Tb/s. While no single contract moves the needle alone, the cumulative effect of similar deals bolsters the argument that Nokia is now an AI infrastructure play rather than a mere telecom equipment vendor.

That narrative will be tested head-on when Nokia reports second-quarter and first-half results next month. Management has guided for sequential revenue growth of 5% to 9% versus Q1, with comparable operating profit expected to land between 12% and 16% of the full-year target. That full-year target itself stands at €2.0 billion to €2.5 billion in comparable operating profit. Within Network Infrastructure, the company forecasts revenue growth of 12% to 14%, while the combined IP and Optical Networks unit is expected to expand 18% to 20%. Capital expenditure is set to rise to €900 million–€1 billion, mainly earmarked for additional optical manufacturing capacity.

Macro Data in the Crosshairs

Before the earnings release, however, the calendar is packed with economic indicators that could sway sentiment around growth-sensitive names like Nokia. On June 23, S&P Global publishes purchasing managers’ indices for France, Germany, the eurozone, the UK, and the US. These surveys will provide the first fresh look at industrial activity across Nokia’s key markets. Separately, the European Commission is scheduled to release its latest reading on consumer confidence.

Two days later, on June 25, the US releases the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for May — the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge — alongside durable goods orders. The PCE index stood at 3.8% year-over-year in the prior month. Any upside surprise could dampen risk appetite across equity markets, putting further downward pressure on high-multiple tech stocks such as Nokia.

Chart Support and the Path Forward

On the technical side, the stock’s recent pullback has relieved the overbought condition that preceded it. The relative strength index now sits at 47.3, neutral territory, while the annualized 30-day volatility of 78.5% underscores that large daily swings remain possible. The immediate support in focus is the 50-day moving average at €11.40 — a level the stock closed above on Friday. Holding that zone would keep the uptrend intact; a decisive break below could invite further selling until the July numbers provide a fresh catalyst.

This week is not about a single event trade. It is a sentiment check: if the AI infrastructure thesis and the incoming macro data hold up together, Nokia enters its earnings release with a solid foundation. If both the macro mood and the optical narrative wobble simultaneously, the €11.40 support level could quickly become the center of attention.