Nokia’s AI-RAN Debut Overshadowed by Chip Cost Fears and Pre-Earnings Anxiety

Nokia unveils AI-native RAN with Nvidia, but shares fall 7.6% on Ericsson's chip cost warning. Oversold RSI at 32.7; Q2 earnings due July 23.

The timing could hardly have been worse. On the very day Nokia unveiled what it calls the telecom industry’s first commercially available artificial intelligence-native radio access network platform — developed in partnership with Nvidia — its shares took a 7.6% hit, closing at €9.10. The slide extended a bruising stretch that has wiped more than 16% off the stock in the past week alone and left it trading 39% below the 52-week high of €14.97 hit on June 3. The disconnect between technological ambition and market reception underscores just how jittery investors have become toward the sector.

The new AI-RAN architecture embeds artificial intelligence directly into the radio access network. Built on Nokia’s anyRAN software and Nvidia’s Aerial platform, the solution promises a more than 20% improvement in spectral efficiency from the outset, with targets of 50% by 2027 and a doubling of capacity by 2028. Operators can deploy it as a plug-in for existing AirScale hardware, a standalone AI-RAN node, or a cloud-native solution on standard servers. Nokia plans to sell the software on a subscription basis, with pilot projects slated for late 2026 and commercial rollouts in 2027. Both Nokia CEO Justin Hotard and Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang described the technology as a seminal moment for radio engineering, framing it as a step toward turning mobile networks into globally distributed AI computers.

Yet the market’s attention was trained on headwinds beyond the company’s control. The sell-off in Nokia shares followed a warning from rival Ericsson about rising chip costs, which dragged down the entire networking space. Similar cost pressures had already surfaced at Taiwan Semiconductor, which, despite record second-quarter earnings, flagged margin compression for the second half of the year. For network equipment providers like Nokia, the combination of elevated expectations for AI-driven growth and a tightening component supply chain has created a punishing crosscurrent: the promise of future efficiency gains collides with near-term cost anxiety.

Technical indicators suggest the stock may be due for a short-term bounce. The 14-day relative strength index has fallen to 32.7, deep into oversold territory. But the annualized volatility of nearly 67% serves as a reminder that trading has become unusually erratic. The sharp monthly decline — the stock has lost roughly 24% over the past four weeks — has erased a significant chunk of the year’s gains, although Nokia remains up about 64% since the start of 2026.

The next major catalyst arrives on July 23, when Nokia is scheduled to report second-quarter and first-half results. Management has guided for an operating comparable result between €2.0 billion and €2.5 billion. According to MarketBeat, the consensus calls for earnings per share of $0.07 on revenue of $5.57 billion, up from $0.06 and $5.21 billion in the prior quarter. Analysts remain broadly constructive, with a “Moderate Buy” rating and average price targets that vary widely: MarketBeat sees $12.57, AInvest $15.16, and JPMorgan as high as $21.00.

Whether the earnings report provides the evidence investors need that the AI-RAN initiative is already generating operational momentum — or that it remains a long-term story with little near-term payoff — will likely determine whether Nokia can arrest its slide. Until then, the stock remains caught between a historic technological pivot and the brutal math of rising costs across the semiconductor supply chain.