Nokia’s AI Move Faces a Reality Check as the Stock Tests a Critical Floor Ahead of Q2 Earnings

Nokia shares have doubled in 2025 on AI infrastructure pivot, but now trade near 100-day moving average ahead of Q2 results, with technical indicators flashing caution.

Nokia shares have been riding an extraordinary wave this year, more than doubling from their 2025 lows on the back of a strategic pivot toward artificial intelligence infrastructure. Yet as the Finnish network equipment maker prepares to report second-quarter results on July 23, the stock finds itself in a precarious technical position—having given back nearly a third of its June peak and now threatening to breach a support level that chart watchers describe as make-or-break.

On Monday, the stock fell as much as 5.8% to an intraday low of €10.32 before recovering to close at €10.53, a decline of 3.88% on the day. That leaves the equity roughly 31% below the 52-week high of €14.97 reached on June 3, and only a whisker above its 100-day moving average of €9.89. The relative strength index has dropped into the low 40s—approaching oversold territory—while 30-day annualized volatility has climbed above 71%, underscoring the jittery mood among traders.

The corrective phase has set in despite a steady drumbeat of positive news. Nokia’s partnership with Nvidia, cemented by a $1 billion investment in October 2025 for a 2.9% stake, has positioned the company as a key supplier for AI data-center connectivity. Earlier this month at the Amplify Korea 2026 conference, the company showcased progress on automated, low-latency, quantum-secure networks built around its AI-RAN initiative. Yet each fresh announcement has failed to reignite buying interest—a sign that much of the AI optimism was already priced in during the 89% year-to-date surge.

Underneath the headline rally, the classical telecom business continues to drag. Nokia’s fixed-networks division reported a 13% revenue decline in the first quarter, weighed down by cautious spending from operators and weaker demand for traditional gear. Management is shifting resources toward optical networks, enterprise services and cloud connectivity, but these growth areas—where AI- and cloud-related revenue jumped 49% year-on-year—still account for only 8% of total sales. The comparable gross margin stood at 45.5% in the first quarter, with an operating margin of 6.2%.

In a quietly significant administrative move, Nokia on July 9 transferred roughly 43.6 million of its own shares to participants in equity-based compensation programs, fulfilling obligations set last October. The company still holds about 88.6 million treasury shares. Such transfers often precede important reporting dates, aligning management and employee incentives with long-term targets. For the market, however, the action went largely unnoticed amid the broader selling pressure.

Analysts remain broadly constructive. Danske Bank recently upgraded the stock to Buy with a €14.00 price target, while Bank of America lifted its target to €15.60, citing Nokia’s strengthening position in AI-linked infrastructure. The consensus will be tested when Nokia delivers its second-quarter numbers. The company has guided that comparable operating profit for the period should represent between 12% and 16% of its full-year target of €2.0 billion to €2.5 billion. Investors are also looking for concrete updates on the timetable for the $4 billion U.S. semiconductor fabrication expansion announced last November and enhanced in June.

For now, the immediate question is whether the €10.00 zone will hold as support. A decisive break below that level—especially on volume—would damage the technical picture that has kept long-term bulls engaged. With the 200-day moving average sitting at €7.61, there is still ample cushion from the rally’s starting point, but the next two weeks will determine whether Nokia’s AI story can reassert itself or whether the weight of legacy telecom headwinds will prove too heavy to ignore.