Nokia's AI Bet Faces Market Scrutiny Ahead of Earnings

Nokia's Q1 results will gauge its AI-RAN push with NVIDIA against insider sales and a rating downgrade. Key financial and strategic milestones are in focus.

As Nokia prepares to report its first-quarter results, the telecommunications equipment giant finds itself at a strategic crossroads. The company's aggressive push into AI-powered networks, backed by a major partnership, is being weighed against recent insider selling and a cautious shift in analyst sentiment. The coming financial disclosure will be closely watched for early signs that its substantial investments are translating into commercial momentum.

Strategic Pivot and Market Movements

Central to Nokia's future is its collaboration with NVIDIA on AI-RAN (Radio Access Network) technology. The alliance, which includes a direct $1 billion investment from NVIDIA, aims to integrate artificial intelligence directly into mobile network infrastructure. Successful tests of GPU-accelerated network workloads were demonstrated at the 2026 Mobile World Congress in Barcelona, including trials at T-Mobile's Innovation Centre in Seattle. There, a single NVIDIA server simultaneously handled video streaming, generative AI requests, and AI-based video captioning.

The initiative has drawn involvement from several major carriers, including BT, Elisa, NTT DOCOMO, and Vodafone. Nokia has outlined a roadmap that targets initial commercial testing in 2026, with a full-scale market launch scheduled for the following year.

Conflicting Signals from Insiders and Institutions

This strategic build-up has been met with mixed signals from the market. On March 10, a mandatory EU disclosure revealed that Raghav Sahgal, Nokia's Chief Customer Officer since January 2026, sold 150,000 shares on the London exchange at a weighted average price of €6.71. This transaction occurred as the company was implementing a recent organizational realignment.

Conversely, institutional interest appears robust. Investment bank Jefferies established a new position in the third quarter, acquiring approximately 955,000 shares valued at around $4.6 million. Trading volume on that same day surged to 60.8 million shares—roughly 67% above the three-month average. Demand for Nokia call options also saw a noticeable increase, indicating speculative interest in potential upside.

Analyst Caution and the Upcoming Financial Report

Despite these developments, some market experts are adopting a wait-and-see approach. Danske Bank recently downgraded its rating on Nokia from "Buy" to "Hold," setting a price target of €6.50, which sits slightly below the current trading level. The analysts cited uncertainty over the timeline for the company's strategic investments to materialize into measurable revenue growth.

Nokia's full-year 2025 results showed revenue of €19.9 billion and an operating profit of €2.0 billion. For 2026, management is guiding for a comparable operating profit ranging between €2.0 and €2.5 billion.

All eyes are now on the quarterly report due in late April. This will be the first earnings release structured under Nokia's new reporting segments: Network Infrastructure and Mobile Infrastructure. The figures will provide the clearest indication yet of whether the company's ambitious AI network strategy is beginning to leave a tangible mark on its financial performance.