Nio’s Stock Dilemma: Record Deliveries Clash With Market Skepticism

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Despite posting its strongest operational performance to date, Nio Inc.'s shares have failed to mirror that success, declining approximately 21% over the past month. This divergence raises a critical question for investors: is the market overlooking a fundamental improvement, or are technical factors suppressing the stock's valuation?

For Nio, growth is no longer the sole narrative. The third quarter underscored a pivotal shift in focus toward earnings quality. The company's gross margin expanded significantly to 13.9%, indicating that economies of scale and cost-reduction initiatives are beginning to take effect. Although revenue slightly missed expectations, this margin improvement is a key signal of operational progress.

Management continues to emphasize its commitment to achieving profitable growth. Bolstering this ambition, Nio maintains a robust financial position with a cash reserve of about $5 billion as of the end of September, providing ample resources for ongoing research and network expansion.

Delivery Records Driven by a Multi-Brand Approach

The company's operational strength was on full display in November. Nio delivered 36,275 vehicles, marking a substantial 76.3% year-over-year increase and setting a new monthly record. This surge is largely attributable to its multi-brand strategy.

Beyond its core brand, contributions from the family-oriented Onvo brand, which delivered 11,794 units, and the compact premium Firefly line, with 6,088 units, were significant. These figures put the firm firmly on track to meet its fourth-quarter delivery guidance of 120,000 to 125,000 vehicles. The performance aligns with a broader tailwind for China's auto industry, where exports surged 48.5% year-over-year.

A Key Technical Overhang Is Removed

The stock's recent pressure, with shares currently trading around €4.36, may be partially explained by a technical market event. A lock-up period restricting the sale of 148.5 million Class C shares expired on December 10, 2025. Such events often create investor caution or selling pressure in anticipation of a potential increase in share supply. With this date now passed, a specific overhang on the stock has been eliminated.

Looking ahead, the trajectory of Nio's share price will likely hinge on its ability to maintain December's high delivery pace. More importantly, if the company can demonstrate that its margin recovery is sustainable, fundamental operational strengths may regain their primacy over technical market mechanics in driving investor sentiment.