Nike's World Cup Blitz Fails to Lift Stock as China Sales Crash 20%

Nike's 'Rip the Script' campaign fails to lift shares as China sales drop 20%, analysts remain neutral, and revenue forecast turns negative.

The glitz of Hollywood stars and football legends has done little to distract investors from the grim reality inside Nike’s financial statements. While the sportswear giant rolls out its most ambitious marketing campaign in years for the 2026 World Cup, its shares remain stuck near €37.30 — down 31% this year and 45% below the 52-week high of €68.37. The real knockout punch comes from China, where fourth-quarter sales are expected to plummet by around 20% as the company accelerates inventory destocking.

The centerpiece of the “Rip the Script” campaign is a six-minute film by agency Wieden+Kennedy that assembles a star-studded cast: Cristiano Ronaldo, Kylian Mbappé, Erling Haaland, Vinícius Jr., Ronaldinho, Zlatan Ibrahimovi?, Didier Drogba, and others, all creating chaos in a Hollywood soundstage. Pop-culture figures Travis Scott, Kim Kardashian, and LeBron James also appear. Nike brands the effort the “Nike Football Universe” and plans to unfold it over 12 weeks, starting with intentionally low-key Polaroid-style teasers designed for social media virality.

But the disconnect between brand spectacle and business fundamentals is glaring. Goldman Sachs emerged from the company’s Global Football Showcase reaffirming a neutral rating and a $52 price target, noting that while management struck a constructive tone, a genuine turnaround isn’t yet in sight. UBS likewise kept its neutral stance and $54 target, describing itself as only “incrementally more positive.” During the week of the campaign launch, the stock actually lost 4%, ending a two-month recovery phase, while retail sentiment on Stocktwits slipped from “bullish” to “neutral” and message volumes collapsed 71%.

Chief Executive Elliott Hill used the company’s internal “Just Do It Day” to address Wall Street directly, admitting Nike had drifted too far into lifestyle and fashion in recent years. “I feel really good about the work the team has done — but at the end of the day it comes down to revenue, market share and stock price,” he said. “It’s a step-by-step improvement, and I have a much better feel for the foundation of our business.” The market’s reaction was tepid at best.

Behind the marketing bravado lies a tough near-term outlook. In the third quarter, North America grew just 3%, while Nike Direct slid 5% and Nike Digital dropped 7%, partly due to tariff costs and a $230 million severance charge. Gross margins fell 130 basis points to 40.2% and are expected to remain under pressure from trade levies through the first quarter of fiscal 2027, with improvements unlikely before the second quarter. The company anticipates overall revenue will decline 2% to 4% in the fourth quarter — a stark reversal from the 2% growth analysts had forecast.

The China slowdown is the most acute pain point. The 20% drop projected for the fourth quarter reflects the rapid clearing of excess inventory as local rivals like Anta continue to gain ground. The broader picture shows revenue falling in the low single digits over the next nine months, according to management’s guidance.

All eyes now turn to June 30, when Nike reports full fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter results and Hill faces his first real test as CEO. The conference call with analysts begins at 23:00 German time. A comprehensive annual and long-term outlook won’t come until an investor day in the autumn. Until then, the stock — with a relative strength index of 42.6 and volatility of 29% — remains in a technical waiting pattern, suspended between a massive marketing bet and the hard numbers of a turnaround that has yet to materialize.