Newmont's Outlook Weighs on Investor Sentiment

Newmont Mining posts record 2025 cash flow but faces market caution as 2026 guidance projects higher costs and lower reserves, prompting mixed analyst reviews.

Despite closing the 2025 financial year on a robust note, Newmont Mining now faces a more cautious market. The gold producer's forward-looking guidance for 2026 has prompted a reassessment of its near-term potential, shifting focus from past record performance to future cost pressures.

A Solid Foundation Meets Future Headwinds

Newmont's 2025 results provided a strong finish, highlighted by a fourth-quarter revenue surge exceeding 20% to $6.82 billion. For the full year, the company generated a record $7.3 billion in free cash flow. Shareholders benefited directly from this strength, receiving a total of $3.4 billion through dividends and share buybacks.

However, the operational outlook for 2026 has introduced a note of caution. Updated forecasts project gold production of approximately 5.3 million ounces, with All-in Sustaining Costs (AISC) expected to rise to around $1,680 per ounce. This projected increase in production costs is pressuring anticipated profitability margins. Furthermore, the company's mineral reserves declined significantly year-over-year to 118.2 million ounces, a reduction primarily attributed to asset sales that generated $3.6 billion in proceeds for the corporation.

Analyst Ratings Reflect a Mixed Picture

In response to the new guidance, several financial institutions have adjusted their positions. TD Cowen revised its price target to $118, maintaining a "Hold" rating. BMO Capital Markets made a slight reduction, lowering its target from $145 to $140 while keeping an "Outperform" recommendation. UBS remains the most bullish, holding a $160 price target. The broader market consensus currently averages a price target of approximately $132, reflecting the mixed analytical sentiment.

Market Reaction and Key Investor Metrics

The stock's recent performance underscores the market's prioritization of future guidance over historical results. Shares are currently trading at €102.50, having declined by roughly 2.8 percent in the latest session. For investors, cost efficiency has become the critical watchpoint. Newmont must now demonstrate it can operate within the forecasted AISC of $1,680 per ounce. The company's next dividend payment of $0.26 per share is scheduled for March 26, 2026.