Nemetschek’s 35% SaaS Surge and $2.4B HCSS Deal Overwhelmed by Oracle-Fueled Sector Sell-Off

Nemetschek posts 17% revenue growth and 30% EBITDA jump, but shares slide 41% YTD amid sector-wide AI capex worries triggered by Oracle.

The Munich-based construction software group is living a tale of two realities. On the operating side, Nemetschek delivered one of its strongest quarters in years – revenue climbing 17% on a currency-adjusted basis to €313.1 million in the first quarter of 2026, and adjusted EBITDA jumping nearly 30%. Over 92% of group revenues now come from recurring sources, with SaaS and subscription income alone advancing 35%. Yet the stock trades at €53.45, just 61% below its 52-week high of €137.90 and down almost 41% since the start of the year. The disconnect is glaring, and it is not a coincidence.

The market’s cold shoulder stems from a sector-wide tremor that began in the United States. Oracle, despite posting record revenues, saw its shares slide roughly 10% after announcing plans to invest a net $70 billion in AI infrastructure by 2027. The worry: such massive capital spending will squeeze free cash flows across the software landscape, punishing any company not perceived as an immediate AI winner. European software names like Nemetschek have been dragged lower by association, regardless of their own fundamentals.

Management’s full-year guidance points to organic revenue growth of 14% to 15% and an EBITDA margin between 32% and 33% – targets that, on paper, support the bull case. The company is also making bold strategic moves. It has signed a binding agreement to acquire HCSS, a US infrastructure software specialist, from private equity firm Thoma Bravo for around $2.4 billion. Nemetschek will take a 72% stake in the combined Build & Construct segment, with Thoma Bravo retaining the remaining 28% as a minority holder. HCSS generated roughly $215 million in revenue in 2025, with annual recurring revenue growing 21% and EBITDA margins around 40%. The deal is expected to close in the second half of 2026 and will increase the group’s net debt by approximately €450 million.

Adding to the transformation, Nemetschek invested in French data specialist Dawex on June 18, participating in a funding round whose size was not disclosed. Dawex builds platforms for secure data exchange, a technology Nemetschek sees as critical for deploying agentic AI across building and infrastructure lifecycles. Neither the HCSS nor Dawex deal offers an immediate earnings pop, but both signal a long-term bet on data-driven construction.

Analysts are largely holding their nerve. Berenberg reiterated a “Buy” rating on June 19 with a price target of €115, while the average of nine analyst estimates stands at €93.38 – roughly double the current share price. Technically, the stock’s relative strength index of 34.4 signals oversold conditions, and the gap to the 200-day moving average of €79.63 – a chasm of about 32% – underscores how deeply the sector reassessment has hit. The broader headwind from Oracle is compounded by a short-term drag from Nemetschek’s own subscription model shift, which depresses reported revenue in the near term even as it improves long-term predictability.

Investors will get the next key data point on July 30, when Nemetschek releases its half-year results. If the management confirms the annual guidance and provides concrete progress on the HCSS closing, the report will land in a market that has already pushed the stock to multi-year lows. The math suggests a recovery is priced in – but the timing depends on whether the Oracle hangover lifts before the next catalyst arrives.