Nel ASA: Trade Tariffs and a CEO Exit Complicate a Promising Order Book

Nel ASA faces US import tariffs, a leadership vacuum, and a costly legal settlement, yet posts a 224% surge in order intake. Stock nears 52-week low.

Nel ASA is navigating one of its most turbulent periods in recent memory, as the Norwegian electrolyser manufacturer contends with new US import tariffs, a leadership vacuum, and a costly legal settlement — all while posting its strongest order intake in months. The stock closed Friday at €0.1968, down 2.09 percent on the day, bringing it dangerously close to its 52-week low of €0.1731 hit in February.

Washington's Tariff Hammer Falls on Green Tech

On July 24, the US government imposed fresh import duties of between 10 and 12.5 percent on components used in green technology, targeting suppliers from roughly 60 economies. For Nel, whose supply chains stretch across multiple continents, the move represents a direct cost escalation. The US is considered one of the company's most important growth markets, and investors now fear rising expenses and potential delays for American projects. The entire green technology sector felt the pressure, but Nel was hit particularly hard.

The tariff news landed at an already delicate moment. The stock now trades roughly 20 percent below its 50-day moving average of €0.2463, a clear sign of short-term bearish momentum. The 14-day relative strength index sits at 36.5, approaching the oversold threshold of 30 — a level that could attract short-term buyers, provided the tariff situation stabilises. With 30-day volatility hovering near 42 percent, further sharp swings are expected as the market continues to price in the implications for the broader industry.

A Bittersweet Quarter: Orders Surge, Losses Widen

The company's second-quarter results paint a deeply contradictory picture. Order intake surged 224 percent year-on-year to 230 million Norwegian kroner, while the order backlog reached 1.213 billion kroner — up 9 percent from the previous quarter. Yet the EBITDA swung to negative 155 million kroner, a figure that includes a 70 million kroner (approximately $7.5 million) settlement with Iwatani Corporation of America over a dispute involving hydrogen refuelling technology in California.

Revenue from customer contracts actually fell 12 percent year-on-year across both the alkaline and PEM businesses, underscoring a persistent weakness. Nel is also grappling with delayed large-scale alkaline orders and overdue receivables, including a significant outstanding claim tied to a German insolvency. These write-offs compound the pressure from already softer revenues.

Despite the losses, Nel maintains a cash reserve of roughly 1.33 billion kroner, providing a buffer to weather the current turbulence.

Leadership Vacancy Adds Uncertainty

The financial complexity is compounded by a change at the top. Håkon Volldal is stepping down as chief executive after four years, citing an opportunity outside the hydrogen sector. He will serve a six-month notice period and remain in post until a successor is found. Chairman Arvid Moss has sought to reassure the market, insisting the strategic direction and key priorities remain unchanged. Analysts, however, view the departure as a potential source of uncertainty around both leadership and strategy — a point raised during the recent quarterly earnings call.

Volldal himself highlighted one notable achievement before his exit: the commercial launch of the new PA-Series pressurised alkaline electrolyser platform. The quarter showed encouraging commercial momentum, he noted, with two significant orders and the platform's market debut.

European Support Offers a Counterweight

While US trade policy dominated sentiment, a positive signal emerged from Europe on July 23. The French government selected three large-scale electrolyser hydrogen projects for funding, totalling €778 million over 15 years. The programme is part of the EU's broader strategy to build one gigawatt of electrolyser capacity. These local successes, however, have yet to offset the broader anxiety over global trade barriers and persistently high interest rates that continue to weigh on capital-intensive green-tech companies.

Partnerships and the Path Forward

For the longer term, Nel continues to lean on international alliances. The partnership with Indian conglomerate Reliance remains central, with Reliance planning to produce electrolysers for its own domestic use. The planned gigafactory is still under development, and key suppliers for the production line are already under contract. Nel has also expanded its technology partner network, adding agreements with SMA Altenso and container integrators in the US and Europe.

The coming weeks will likely be shaped by two factors: progress on the CEO search and whether the strong order intake can be sustained into the third quarter. Only when both provide clarity will it become clear whether the operational momentum can outweigh the leadership question and the headwinds from Washington.