Nel ASA: The 52-Week High That Defies the Numbers

Nel ASA hits 52-week high on tech launch hopes, but Q1 revenue falls 5%, orders collapse 73%, and analysts issue 'sell' consensus.

The hydrogen sector is serving up a paradox this spring, and nowhere is it more pronounced than at Nel ASA. The Norwegian electrolyser specialist has watched its shares surge to a fresh 52-week high, yet the quarterly figures released just days ago paint a picture of deepening operational strain. The disconnect between market sentiment and financial reality has rarely been starker.

Since the start of the year, Nel’s stock has climbed more than 43%, closing the week at €0.28 after a single-day jump of 16%. That rally has been fuelled in large part by anticipation surrounding a new technology platform, due to be unveiled by CEO Håkon Volldal on 6 May. The pressurised alkaline electrolyser system, the company claims, could slash the cost of green hydrogen production by nearly half. Investors are clearly betting that this will be a game-changer.

But the first-quarter numbers, released ahead of that launch, tell a more sobering story. Revenue from customer contracts fell to 148 million Norwegian kroner, down 5% year-on-year. EBITDA came in at negative 100 million kroner, while the net loss stood at 144 million kroner — both figures representing an improvement on the same period last year, but still deep in the red. The company has cut its workforce by 26% from its peak, driving a 21% reduction in personnel costs during the quarter.

The real alarm bell, however, is ringing in the order book. New orders in Q1 totalled just 85 million kroner — a collapse of 73% compared with the prior year. The order backlog shrank to 1.113 billion kroner, down 24% from 12 months earlier. That is a stark indicator that demand, at least for now, is not matching the market’s enthusiasm.

Analysts remain cautious despite the share price rally. Berenberg has held its neutral rating but trimmed its price target from 2.60 to 2.30 kroner. Citigroup followed suit, cutting its target from 2.70 to 2.40 kroner. Both cite valuation risks, and the consensus among the seven analysts covering the stock is a “sell” recommendation, with an average 12-month price target of 2.14 kroner. Not one recommends buying.

Some positive news has emerged since the quarter closed. Nel’s US subsidiary secured a follow-on order worth around $7 million from Mesure Process, a subsidiary of Synqo Energies, for container-based PEM electrolysers destined for a European hydrogen project. A second order, also worth roughly $7 million, came from the Douglas County Public Utility District in Washington State, where an electrolyser will use surplus hydropower to stabilise the local grid. Commissioning is scheduled for the first half of 2027.

Yet even these wins are overshadowed by a potential write-down at Nel’s Herøya facility. The company is reviewing the book value of two idled 500-megawatt production lines there, and an impairment charge is on the cards. That would add to a balance sheet that already ended the 2025 financial year with a net loss of 1.27 billion kroner. Whether the lines will be restarted, sold, or closed entirely remains undecided.

Nel’s liquidity position offers some breathing room. Cash reserves stood at roughly 1.4 billion kroner at the end of the quarter, enough, the company says, to fund operations through to the end of 2026. The half-year report, due on 15 July, will be the next major checkpoint — and the first real test of whether the new platform can convert market excitement into actual orders.

For now, Nel is riding a wave of sector-wide optimism, partly fuelled by Bloom Energy’s blockbuster quarterly results in late April, which lifted the entire hydrogen space. But the gap between narrative and numbers is widening. Tuesday’s technology launch is the moment of truth — a chance for Volldal to prove that the rally is built on more than just hope.