Nel ASA: Stock Soars 50% While Orders Collapse 73% – All Eyes on July's Half-Year Results

Nel ASA stock up 49% but orders down 73%; all 7 analysts say sell. New tech and cash buffer provide hope, but fundamentals remain weak.

The Norwegian hydrogen specialist Nel ASA has staged an improbable rally this year, with its share price climbing 49.71% since January and 47.03% over the past 30 days alone. Yet beneath the surface, the company’s operating figures tell a starkly different story. First-quarter order intake tumbled 73% year-on-year to just 85 million Norwegian kroner, and the order backlog shrank to 1.1 billion kroner. The EBITDA loss stood at negative 100 million kroner. That disconnect between market enthusiasm and business reality has left every single one of the seven analysts covering the stock recommending a sale, with an average price target of 2.12 kroner – well below the current trading level of around 3.03 kroner in Oslo.

Even the broader hydrogen sector provided a tailwind: US peer Plug Power surged more than 8% after reporting quarterly revenues of $163.5 million, lifting sentiment across the space. But for Nel, the underlying metrics remain a drag. The enterprise value-to-sales ratio for the current fiscal year is estimated at 5.68, while the price-to-earnings ratio stays deeply negative at minus 12.3. Analysts have nevertheless nudged up their earnings forecasts for 2026 to a loss of minus 0.23 kroner per share – a slight improvement that does little to bridge the gulf between price and fundamentals.

Nel did unveil a new generation of pressurised alkaline electrolysers in May, promising system cost reductions of 40% to 60% compared with available market solutions. The European Union has pledged up to €135 million from its Innovation Fund to help industrialise the platform. So far, however, not a single publicly announced order has been secured for the new product line. The company’s PEM division offered some relief: after the first quarter closed, Nel landed a $7 million contract with the Douglas County Public Utility District in Washington state – its first sale to a public utility. Chief executive Håkon Volldal has signalled that more PEM orders are expected before the end of the first half.

The balance sheet provides a cushion. Nel holds roughly 1.4 billion kroner in cash, giving it time to rebuild its order book. How much time depends on how quickly new contracts materialise. A signal of insider confidence came in late April when board chairman Arvid Moss purchased 100,000 shares at an average price of 2.25 kroner. While market watchers interpret that as a vote of confidence, it does little to replace the missing orders.

In the broader market, long-term prospects for green hydrogen remain a source of debate. One study projects the global electrolysis market to reach $35.27 billion by 2032, yet DNV recently slashed its long-term forecast for clean hydrogen by 45% – a reminder that project timelines and policy execution remain uncertain. Technically, Nel’s stock does not appear overextended despite the rally: the relative strength index stands at 32.2, a level that typically suggests room for further upside. Volatility remains elevated nonetheless.

The next major catalyst arrives on July 15, when Nel publishes its half-year report. That date will test whether the new alkaline platform and the steady trickle of PEM deals can translate into tangible orders. If order intake stays weak, the gap between the stock’s current level and the analyst consensus will become increasingly difficult to justify. For now, the market is betting on a turnaround that has yet to prove itself.