Nel ASA: Stock Climbs 42% on New Electrolyser, but Q1 Orders Collapse 73%

Nel ASA shares jump 42% after next-gen alkaline electrolyser launch, but Q1 orders fell 73% and analysts remain neutral. Cash runway to end-2025, half-year results due July 15.

The Oslo-listed shares of Nel ASA have surged nearly 42% over the past 30 days, closing at €0.30 on Friday and brushing against the 52-week high of €0.32 touched in early May. Behind the rally lies a major product launch – a next-generation pressurised alkaline electrolyser that promises a 40–60% reduction in investment costs. Yet the first-quarter numbers tell a starkly different story: order intake plummeted by 73% to just 85 million Norwegian kroner, and the order book shrank by a quarter to around 1.1 billion kroner.

Revenue from customer contracts slipped 5% to 148 million kroner, while EBITDA landed at minus 100 million kroner – still an improvement of 15 million kroner year-on-year, helped by a workforce reduction of more than a quarter. With 1.4 billion kroner in cash, Nel says its liquidity runway stretches to the end of this year. But the backlog slump has prompted Berenberg analyst James Carmichael to trim his price target from NOK 2.60 to NOK 2.30 while maintaining a neutral stance. Not a single analyst covering the stock currently advises buying.

The new electrolyser system, operating at 15 bar, is the fruit of more than eight years of development. Commercial launch comes with heavy state backing: the European Union’s Innovation Fund has granted up to €135 million for industrialising the platform at Nel’s Herøya facility in Norway, where planned capacity reaches 1 GW per year. The grant covers as much as 60% of eligible costs. An additional €11 million linked to the alkaline platform is expected to flow in during the second quarter. Management hopes the technology will shorten project timelines and improve scalability, but the immediate commercial impact remains unproven.

Against this bleak order backdrop, Nel’s PEM division secured two contracts worth roughly $7 million each. One is with the Douglas County Public Utility District in Washington state – the first municipal utility to operate a Nel system – which plans to use surplus hydropower for grid stabilisation from early 2027. The other contract supports a European hydrogen project. However, Nel continues to be stung by delayed research funding from the U.S. Department of Energy, with no clear timeline for resumption.

The stock’s relative strength index stands at 32, hovering on the edge of oversold territory after the recent correction from its 52-week peak. Chief executive Håkon Volldal reports ongoing talks with potential customers for projects in the 50–150 MW range across Europe and North America, and he expects more final investment decisions in 2026 than last year. All eyes now turn to July 15, when Nel reports half-year results. The critical question for investors is whether the new electrolyser platform can convert customer discussions into firm orders – or whether the stock’s recent run has gotten ahead of the fundamentals.