Nel ASA: Short Sellers Retreat as New Platform Launches, but Orders Plummet 73%

Nel ASA hits 52-week high, up 90% YTD, as short interest drops and new alkaline electrolyser targets lower costs, but order backlog falls 24%, revenues slide, and no analyst buy ratings.

Nel ASA’s stock has been on a tear, climbing nearly 90% since the start of the year to touch a new 52-week high of €0.36. The rally is being driven in part by a notable retreat among short sellers. Data from the Norwegian financial watchdog Finanstilsynet shows disclosed short interest has fallen to 1.13% of outstanding shares, a drop of 0.14 percentage points in the latest filing and a broader contraction of half a percentage point over a longer comparison period. In Norway, short positions exceeding 0.5% of equity must be reported publicly, and the steady decline reduces latent selling pressure in an already volatile hydrogen sector. The stock now sits more than 56% above its 50-day moving average of €0.23, underscoring the strength of the move.

The optimism is also tied to a technological leap. Nel has commercially launched its next-generation pressurised alkaline electrolyser platform, developed over eight years. The company targets total project costs of under $1,450 per kilowatt for a 25 MW installation, a significant reduction from the $3,000 per kilowatt or more that many industrial projects have recently faced. That is a compelling headline, but the competitive landscape is quickly shifting. Just two weeks after Nel’s launch, Danish rival Stiesdal Hydrogen unveiled a 6.5 MW electrolyser promising system costs below €500 per kilowatt. ITM Power’s PEM systems come in at around $1,166 per kilowatt, including balance of plant, while Chinese manufacturers are seen as the cost benchmark at roughly €500 per kilowatt. Nel’s technology story now hinges on whether its price proposition can keep pace.

The operational reality, however, tells a different story. Nel’s latest order intake collapsed 73% to 85 million Norwegian kroner in May, and the order backlog fell 24% to 1.113 billion kroner. Management has acknowledged that the current book does not secure meaningful factory utilisation in 2027. The PEM division saw revenues slide 14%, weighed down by delayed project deliveries and frozen US research grants, parts of which have been under review since late last year. Nel plans a prototype stack for its next-generation PEM system in 2026, targeting cost reductions of around 70% at the stack level, but commercial deployment is likely years away.

The first-quarter numbers for 2026 underscore the strain. Revenues came in at 148 million kroner, down 5% year-on-year, and EBITDA was negative 100 million kroner. What provides a floor is the balance sheet: Nel closed the quarter with roughly 1.4 billion kroner in cash, enough to fund operations without near-term external financing. That liquidity cushion buys time but does not replace new orders.

Analysts remain distinctly unenthusiastic. Among 13 covering the stock, none recommend a buy, and the average price target stands at 2.12 Norwegian kroner — comfortably below current trading levels. Nel has also trimmed its workforce to around 300 employees, 26% below the peak and 19% below the previous year, cutting personnel costs by 21%. The downside, as management notes, is reduced manufacturing and project capacity should demand rebound quickly.

The company continues to deal with legacy issues. It is reviewing the carrying value of two idled atmospheric electrolyser production lines in Herøya, each with 500 MW capacity, which could lead to further impairments. In the 2025 full-year results, Nel already booked total impairments of 799 million kroner, split between production assets (361 million) and goodwill and intangible technology values (439 million).

Nel expects to receive an initial €11 million tranche from the EU in the current quarter to support the production ramp-up at Herøya, where it aims to reach an annual capacity of 500 MW for the new alkaline platform by year-end. Management anticipates more final investment decisions in 2026 than in the previous year, with increasing momentum in 2027 and 2028, including demand from defence and security applications. All eyes are now on CEO Håkon Volldal’s half-year report on 15 July. That presentation will need to show concrete progress on order intake, project execution, and utilisation at Herøya rather than just technological promise. Without visible commercial traction, the current rally remains heavily dependent on expectations.