Nel ASA Shares Struggle to Find Footing Amid Expansion Plans

Nel ASA NO0010081235

The shares of Norwegian hydrogen technology company Nel ASA have opened the new trading week on a soft note, extending a period of weakness. This muted performance persists despite a significant corporate milestone: the final investment decision to expand production capacity. The market's tepid reaction raises questions about whether near-term concerns are currently overshadowing the long-term potential of the hydrogen narrative.

Trading activity on Monday saw Nel's stock price edging lower. The equity was quoted around €0.191 (approximately 2.23 NOK), remaining below the psychologically significant €0.20 threshold. This represents a decline of roughly 0.5% from the previous session, continuing the bearish trend established in prior weeks.

Key data points include:
* Current Price: Approximately €0.191, below the €0.20 level.
* Intraday Movement: A modest decline, extending the existing downward trajectory.
* Market Capitalization: Near 4.1 billion NOK.
* Prevailing Trend: Predominantly weak to sideways.

Trading volumes have been relatively subdued. The absence of substantial buy orders suggests a wait-and-see approach, particularly among larger institutional investors.

A Strategic Move Fails to Ignite Enthusiasm

The stock's direction appears counterintuitive given recent corporate developments. In December 2025, Nel's board approved a major capital expenditure to scale up production. The plan involves expanding capacity at its Herøya, Norway facility to 1 gigawatt for its next-generation pressurized alkaline electrolyzers.

This strategic decision is designed to position the company for future large-scale projects within the hydrogen sector. However, this announcement has so far failed to provide any meaningful upward momentum for the share price.

Current investor sentiment seems to be prioritizing other factors:
* A heightened focus on short-term financial performance.
* Demand for greater visibility regarding the company's order backlog.
* Perceived execution and ramp-up risks associated with the capacity expansion.

The divergence between a long-term growth strategy and a weak market response indicates that investors may have already priced in a significant portion of the expansion's associated risks.

Technical and Fundamental Perspectives

From a chart analysis standpoint, the technical picture remains challenging. The stock is trading below key moving averages, a configuration that formally confirms the bearish trend. Several attempts to break through the resistance zone between 2.25 and 2.30 NOK (around €0.20) have been unsuccessful, solidifying this range as a near-term ceiling.

This skepticism is mirrored in the fundamental analysis from research firms. The consensus among market experts currently leans toward ratings such as "Sell" or "Underperform." Primary concerns center on:
* The timeline for achieving sustained profitability.
* Intensifying competition within the electrolyzer market.

In the absence of visible revenue growth stemming from the new capacity or the announcement of major project awards for 2026, the shares lack a clear catalyst for a sustained trend reversal.

Outlook and Key Upcoming Milestones

In the immediate future, the €0.20 (approximately 2.30 NOK) price level stands as the primary technical hurdle. A convincing break above this resistance, coupled with a lack of major new contracts or concrete earnings catalysts for 2026, suggests the risk-reward profile will continue to be influenced by the prevailing weakness. The operational execution of the 1 GW Herøya expansion and the subsequent transition from capacity planning to measurable revenue growth will be the critical phases to watch for determining the stock's future trajectory.