Nel ASA Shares Navigate a Pivotal Juncture

Nel ASA NO0010081235

Nel ASA enters the new trading week under significant pressure. While a brief rally approached the 2.30 NOK level, the focus is shifting from short-term price movements to the growing gap between the company's ambitious technology roadmap and the cautious stance of market analysts. Having more than halved in value from levels above 5.00 NOK in 2024, the stock is now entrenched in a sensitive consolidation phase.

The fundamental picture is currently strained, though not in acute danger. Recent quarterly figures reveal a mixed financial position:

• Q3 2025 Contract Revenue: 303 million NOK, representing a 17% year-on-year decline.
• Order Intake: A sharp contraction of 64% to 57 million NOK.
• Order Backlog: 984 million NOK.
• Cash Position (End 2025): Approximately 1.8 billion NOK.

This substantial liquidity reserve is crucial for funding ongoing investments into the 2026/2027 industrialization phase. However, the declining revenue underscores a medium-term necessity for top-line growth to sustain the business model.

Market expectations have been tempered significantly. Several major institutions have recently revised their assessments downward, adjusting the valuation framework for the equity. The consensus price target for late January now stands at approximately 2.23 NOK, nearly 8% lower than prior estimates.

Notable analyst positions include:
* Goldman Sachs: Maintains a neutral rating with a 2.20 NOK target, suggesting minimal upside from current trading levels.
* Kepler Cheuvreux: Adopts a more cautious stance with a "reduce" rating and a 1.90 NOK price target.

These targets reflect widespread skepticism regarding the timeline for profitability in the hydrogen technology sector. The recent 4% advance to 2.30 NOK carries technical significance but faces headwinds as 12-month expectations are progressively scaled back.

The "Next Generation" Commercialization Challenge

Amid the weak share price performance, Nel is approaching a strategically critical milestone. The company is in the commercialization phase for its Next Generation Pressurized Alkaline platform. A final investment decision is expected in December 2025, with market entry slated for the first half of 2026.

This launch is central to the operational future strategy, aiming to:
* Achieve a significant reduction in the Levelized Cost of Hydrogen (LCOH).
* Enhance the energy efficiency of its electrolyzers.
* Ramp production capacity at the Herøya site to up to 1 GW.

Consequently, execution risk has risen noticeably. Following the pronounced slowdown in order intake at the end of 2025, investors are demanding tangible evidence that the new technology will translate into firm purchase orders. This is the precise point that will determine whether the platform becomes a growth catalyst or a burden.

Technical Outlook and Key Levels

Chart analysis shows the equity is locked in a clear long-term downtrend, having lost over half its value since 2024. The divergence between strategic milestones and price action is widening; as Nel scales its new alkaline platform industrially, the market appears to be pricing in a scenario of sluggish progress.

For the immediate trading week, the zone between 2.20 and 2.30 NOK is a critical battleground. Holding this area could allow for technical recovery attempts. A break below it—potentially accelerated by cautious analyst notes like Kepler Cheuvreux's "reduce" rating—may trigger additional selling pressure. Conversely, concrete announcements regarding commercial offtake agreements for the new alkaline system could spur short-term rallies. Such news would serve as the definitive test of whether market confidence in the new technology is strengthening.

Summary of Critical Data Points

• Current Share Price: ~2.30 NOK
• Consensus Price Target: ~2.23 NOK (a 7.9% reduction)
• Key Support Level: 2.20 NOK (Goldman Sachs target)
• Bearish Scenario Target: 1.90 NOK (Kepler Cheuvreux target)
• Cash Reserve: ~1.8 billion NOK
• Primary Near-Term Catalyst: Commercial launch of the Next-Gen Alkaline Platform in H1 2026