Nel ASA Shares Face Critical Test Ahead of Earnings Release

Nel ASA NO0010081235

Investor skepticism continues to weigh heavily on the hydrogen sector, with shares of Nel ASA trading under significant pressure. The stock, currently hovering around NOK 2.25, retreated further in the latest session, extending its pronounced distance from previous valuation levels.

The company's financials underscore a difficult operational phase. Over the trailing twelve months, Nel reported a net loss of approximately NOK 459 million, translating to an earnings per share figure of -NOK 0.26. This loss is reflected in a profit margin of -43.75%, highlighting substantial cash outflow.

Key profitability ratios remain deep in negative territory:
* Return on Equity: -9.42%
* Return on Total Capital: -5.70%

Despite generating revenue of about NOK 1.05 billion in the last year, the company continues to operate at a significant deficit. The slower-than-anticipated development of the green hydrogen market is a primary contributor to this ongoing challenge.

Trading Activity and Valuation

Nel's equity is entrenched in a clear downward trend. The current price sits well below the 52-week high of NOK 3.61, though it maintains a roughly 14% buffer above the 52-week low of NOK 1.95. Trading volume recently came in at approximately 3.16 million shares, below the average of 3.87 million. The market currently values the company at a capitalization of NOK 4.14 billion.

A snapshot of critical data:
* Last Price: NOK 2.25
* Daily Range: NOK 2.24 – NOK 2.30
* 52-Week Range: NOK 1.95 – NOK 3.61
* Market Capitalization: NOK 4.14 billion
* Price-to-Book Ratio: 0.88
* Cash & Equivalents: NOK 1.76 billion
* Net Loss (TTM): -NOK 458.58 million

The stock's price-to-book ratio of 0.88, indicating it trades below its book value, signals persistent market doubts about Nel's near-term prospects.

Fourth-Quarter Results Loom as Key Catalyst

All eyes are on the upcoming earnings report scheduled for February 26, 2026, which will detail performance for the fourth quarter and full year 2025. This release is widely viewed as the next major potential catalyst for the share price.

The context is challenging: third-quarter 2025 revenue declined by 17% year-over-year to NOK 303 million, with EPS at -NOK 0.05. The market will scrutinize the Q4 figures for any evidence of operational stabilization or early signs of a turnaround.

Divergent Views from Market Experts

Analyst sentiment is notably fragmented, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding the company's trajectory:
* Average Price Target: NOK 2.21
* Target Range: NOK 1.20 – NOK 4.20
* Kepler Cheuvreux: Maintains a "Reduce" rating with a NOK 1.90 target.
* Citi: Holds a "Neutral" stance with a NOK 2.70 target.

The wide dispersion between the lowest and highest price objectives underscores the lack of consensus on Nel's future path.

Long-Term Strategy Centered on Next-Gen Technology

Operationally, management is focusing on advancing its technology platform. A key strategic move was the final investment decision made in December 2025 to industrialize its next-generation platform for pressurized alkaline electrolyzers at the Herøya site in Norway.

The project is supported by a commitment of up to €135 million from the EU Innovation Fund. Market launch is planned for the first half of 2026, with scaled-up production targeted for 2027. The core objective of this new platform is to achieve a substantial reduction in the cost of hydrogen production.

For now, however, near-term skepticism prevails. The forthcoming Q4 report at the end of February is expected to provide a crucial interim assessment of whether Nel can convert its significant technology investments into profitable growth in the foreseeable future.