Nel ASA Shares Face a Pivotal Year Amidst Market Pressures
13.01.2026 - 16:52:03
Shares of Norwegian hydrogen technology firm Nel ASA continue to trade near historic lows, with market sentiment remaining subdued despite a significant capital commitment announced late last year. For many observers, 2026 represents a critical test for the electrolysis specialist's business model and growth trajectory.
The equity is currently changing hands in the range of 2.23 to 2.29 Norwegian kroner, hovering just above its 52-week low of 1.95 NOK. This price action has left the company with a market capitalization of approximately 4.19 billion NOK, a stark contraction from the peak valuations seen during the hydrogen sector euphoria of 2021. From those former highs, the stock has shed more than 93% of its value.
Key financial metrics underscore the challenging environment:
- Price-to-Book Ratio: 0.87 (below book value)
- 52-Week Range: 1.95 NOK to 3.61 NOK
- 12-Month Performance: Approximately -19% to -20%
- Order Backlog: Declined roughly 47% to 984 million NOK
- Average Daily Volume: About 4.1 million shares
A price-to-book ratio below 1.0 indicates the market currently values the company at less than its stated equity on the balance sheet, signaling pronounced investor doubt regarding its future prospects.
Contract Pipeline and Operational Challenges
A nearly 50% year-over-year reduction in the order backlog to 984 million NOK is viewed as a central concern, significantly impairing near-term revenue visibility and weighing heavily on institutional investor confidence.
These challenges are compounded by operational adjustments. In January 2025, Nel reduced its workforce by around 20% and temporarily halted production at its Herøya facility for atmospheric alkaline electrolysers. Furthermore, the company has begun reclaiming equipment from projects where customers have fallen behind on overdue payments.
Strategic Bet on Next-Generation Technology
In a move aimed at securing long-term competitiveness, Nel's board approved the final investment decision in December 2025 to industrialize its Next-Generation Pressurized Alkaline platform at the Herøya site.
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The project's key parameters include:
- Total Investment: Around 300 million NOK
- Initial Capacity: 1 Gigawatt (GW)
- EU Innovation Fund Support: Up to 135 million EUR
- Scalability: Potential for expansion to 4 GW
- Commercial Launch: First half of 2026
- Industrial Deliveries: Expected from 2027 onward
This modular, container-based platform is designed to substantially lower hydrogen production costs. However, the market reaction was fleeting; a brief share price rally following the announcement quickly faded, and the downward trend resumed.
Cautious Stance Prevails Among Research Firms
The prevailing analyst consensus on Nel ranges from "Underperform" to "Sell," with an average price target near 2.22 NOK. The wide dispersion of targets, spanning from 1.20 NOK to 4.20 NOK, highlights considerable uncertainty about both the broader hydrogen market's evolution and the company's execution capabilities.
Notable analyst ratings include:
- Citi: "Neutral," with a 2.70 NOK target
- Kepler Cheuvreux: "Reduce," with a 1.90 NOK target
- Jefferies: "Hold," with a 2.20 NOK target
Positive Developments in Project Awards
Despite the tough backdrop, Nel has reported some encouraging contract wins. In November 2025, the company secured an order exceeding $50 million for PEM electrolysers to be used in the Norwegian HyFuel and Kaupanes hydrogen projects. This marks the second-largest order in Nel's history and its largest PEM electrolyser contract to date.
In a separate development, Samsung E&A has commissioned its CompassH2 hydrogen plant, which utilizes Nel's alkaline electrolyser technology. This partnership could open additional distribution channels and strengthen Nel's position in future project bids.
A Defining Period Approaches
The coming months are set to determine whether the new Herøya platform, the project pipeline, and strategic partnerships can offset the declining order backlog. Investors will gain a comprehensive update on February 26, 2026, when Nel reports its next set of financial results. This disclosure is anticipated to provide detailed insights into industrialization progress, backlog development, and the overall earnings picture.
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