Nel ASA Shares Approach a Pivotal Reporting Period

Nel ASA NO0010081235

The shares of Norwegian electrolyzer specialist Nel ASA are currently trading within a narrow range as investors await the company's fourth-quarter 2025 results, scheduled for release in late February. This follows a period of operational challenges highlighted in Q3, putting the focus squarely on whether order intake has recovered. Concurrently, a major strategic investment decision for a new manufacturing platform is drawing significant attention.

In December 2025, Nel's management approved the final investment to industrialize its "Next Generation Pressurized Alkaline" electrolyzer platform at Herøya, Norway. This move concludes a development program spanning approximately seven years. The project is central to the company's strategy of reducing system costs and the levelized cost of hydrogen production.

Key Details of the Herøya Initiative

• EU Innovation Fund Support: Up to €135 million in funding.
• Target Annual Capacity: Up to 4 gigawatts.
• Initial Investment: Roughly 300 million NOK for a first-phase capacity of 1 GW.
• Commercial Launch Target: First half of 2026.
• Mass Production Timeline: Deliveries from large-scale series production are expected to commence in 2027.

Q3 2025 Performance: A Look at the Pressures

The third-quarter figures underscored the near-term headwinds facing the company. Key operational metrics revealed the extent of the challenge:

• Revenue: 303 million NOK, a decrease of approximately 17% year-over-year.
• Order Intake: A sharp decline of 64% to just 57 million NOK.
• Order Backlog: 984 million NOK.
• Liquid Assets: Approximately 1.8 billion NOK.

The significant drop in new orders has intensified scrutiny on the upcoming Q4 report. Market participants will be looking for evidence that new project bookings have materially improved, potentially reversing the downward trend.

Sector Challenges and Operational Highlights

The broader environment for hydrogen-focused firms remains difficult. European regulators continue to cite high production costs and slow infrastructure development as primary constraints on industry growth. For equipment suppliers like Nel, this complicates the path to profitable scaling.

Despite these challenges, the company has announced several operational successes in recent months. These include contract wins for the HyFuel and Kaupanes projects, as well as being selected as the technology provider for GreenH projects in Kristiansund and Slagentangen.

Divergent Analyst Views Reflect Uncertainty

Market experts are divided in their assessment of Nel's equity, mirroring the uncertainty surrounding strategy execution and market dynamics. Recent analyst ratings include:

• Citi: "Neutral" rating with a price target of 2.70 NOK.
• Kepler Cheuvreux: "Reduce" rating with a price target of 1.90 NOK.
• Jefferies: "Hold" rating with a price target of 2.20 NOK.

The consensus twelve-month price target sits around 2.21–2.23 NOK. The wide range of individual targets, from 1.20 NOK to 4.20 NOK, highlights the markedly different perspectives on the company's future trajectory.

Spring Calendar: Key Dates for Investors

The coming weeks are likely to be decisive for the stock's direction. Important dates on the financial calendar are:

• 26 February 2026: Publication of Q4 2025 results and the annual report.
• 10 April 2026: Annual General Meeting.
• 22 April 2026: Q1 2026 report release.

The Q4 disclosure will be scrutinized for signs of stabilization in order intake following the weak third quarter. Investors will also seek clarity on the expected revenue contribution from the new Herøya platform from 2026/2027 onward. With a market capitalization of about 4.1 billion NOK and a share price below its 52-week high of 3.61 NOK, the focus is firmly on the company's medium-term growth dynamics and its ability to execute on strategic projects.