Nel ASA Settles US Lawsuit for $7.5M, but Macro Headwinds and Weak Orders Keep Stock Under Pressure

Norwegian hydrogen firm resolves legal overhang with Iwatani, but weak earnings, 73% order drop, and looming inflation data pressure shares near key support.

Nel ASA entered the new trading week with a tangible piece of good news for the first time in months. The Norwegian hydrogen technology group has reached a $7.5 million settlement with Iwatani Corporation of America, drawing a line under a legal dispute that had cast a shadow over its US operations since early 2024. The resolution, disclosed as an insider notification under European market abuse rules, removes a specific overhang — but it lands at a moment when the stock is reeling from a 26% weekly rout and facing a critical stretch of macro events.

The case, which originated in California and involved claims over hydrogen refueling station equipment and services, was tied to technical and operational challenges common in a nascent industry. Nel confirmed that certain former entities now housed under Cavendish Hydrogen ASA were also swept into the conflict. By settling, the company avoids further litigation costs and reduces US legal exposure, even as the $7.5 million payment represents a cash outflow at a time when every krone counts.

That cash buffer remains sizable — 1.443 billion Norwegian kroner at the end of the last quarter — but the underlying operating picture is stark. Nel posted quarterly revenue from customer contracts of just 148 million kroner and an EBITDA loss of 100 million kroner. Net loss clocked in at 144 million kroner. Order intake collapsed 73% year-on-year to 85 million kroner, while the order backlog fell 24% from a year ago to 1.113 billion kroner. The legal settlement does nothing to fix that.

Friday’s session captured the market’s mood perfectly. Nel shares plunged nearly 13% to close at €0.26, extending a week-long slide that erased a quarter of the stock’s value. Despite that, the year-to-date gain still stands at 35%, illustrating the extreme volatility that has become the norm for Nel. The annualized 30-day volatility is running at roughly 105%, a figure that leaves the stock acutely sensitive to any incoming data.

With no company-specific catalysts on the calendar this week, the macro calendar takes center stage. On Wednesday June 10, both the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and Statistics Norway will release their May inflation readings. For a capital-intensive clean-tech stock, inflation data directly influences interest rate expectations and the discount rates applied to future earnings. The following day, the European Central Bank’s rate decision in Frankfurt could shift sentiment across European industrial and renewable energy names, Nel included.

Technically, the stock is hanging by a thread. Friday’s close at €0.26 coincides almost exactly with the 50-day moving average, a level that now becomes either a floor or a launchpad for further declines. The relative strength index sits at 40.5, not yet signaling an oversold condition. If the 50-day average gives way, the 200-day moving average at €0.21 looms as the next support. That would represent a further 19% drop from current levels.

Nel’s management has entered its quiet period ahead of the half-year report due July 15, with the third-quarter update scheduled for October 21. Until then, the settlement with Iwatani stands as the most significant corporate development — a necessary cleanup of a legal mess, but one that does nothing to address the fundamental challenge of converting policy support into firm orders. The European Hydrogen Bank has awarded more than €1 billion to nine projects representing nearly 1.1 GW of electrolyzer capacity, and global installed capacity has climbed to 3.7 GW, but for Nel shareholders, the gap between ambition and execution remains uncomfortably wide.