Nel ASA's Two-Speed Reality: Record Share Price Meets a 73% Order Slump

Nel ASA stock hits €0.28 high despite Q1 revenue dip and 73% order collapse; new pressurized alkaline electrolyser platform on May 6 promises 40-60% capex savings.

The hydrogen economy is moving at two different speeds for Nel ASA. While the stock has surged to a 52-week high of €0.28 — up roughly 44% since the start of the year — the underlying business tells a more sobering story. The disconnect between market enthusiasm and operational reality will face its next major test on May 6, when the company unveils a new technology platform that management hopes will rewrite the narrative.

Revenue and Losses: A Mixed Picture

Nel’s first-quarter 2026 results, released alongside the rally, show a company still deep in restructuring mode. Customer revenues came in at 148 million Norwegian kroner, down 5% from the same period last year. Total revenue, including other income, reached 152 million kroner, compared with 175 million a year earlier. The net loss narrowed to 144 million kroner from 179 million, while EBITDA improved by 15 million kroner to minus 100 million — still firmly in the red.

The improvement reflects aggressive cost-cutting. Nel has reduced its workforce by roughly a quarter, a move that has helped stabilise the cost base. But the price of that discipline is visible in the order book. New orders collapsed 73% to just 85 million kroner in the quarter, dragging the total order backlog down 24% to around 1.1 billion kroner. CEO Håkon Volldal described the period as “rather quiet” but noted that the PEM division had already signed a new contract in the second quarter.

The May 6 Catalyst

All eyes are now on next Wednesday, when Nel plans to unveil its new pressurised alkaline electrolyser platform. Volldal has called it a “milestone for the entire electrolyser segment,” and the numbers back up the hype. The company promises capital expenditure savings of 40% to 60% and operating cost reductions of 10% to 20% compared with current technology. The EU Innovation Fund has committed up to €135 million — covering roughly 60% of eligible costs — to help scale annual production capacity to 4 GW. Larger commercial deliveries are expected to begin in 2027.

The transition carries a sting. Nel’s two 500-MW production lines for atmospheric alkaline electrolysers in Herøya, Norway, are currently idled. The launch of the new platform could trigger impairment charges on those legacy assets, adding a potential one-off hit to an already strained balance sheet.

A Pivot to Security

Volldal is also repositioning the company’s messaging. Rather than selling hydrogen purely as a climate solution, he has begun emphasising its role in energy security, decentralised power generation, and even defence-related applications. The shift appears to be resonating with investors who see strategic value beyond the green transition. After the quarter closed, Nel’s PEM division secured a $7 million order for container-based electrolysers, with deliveries to European hydrogen refuelling stations and industrial customers slated for 2027.

Cash, Consensus, and Governance

Financially, Nel has some breathing room. Liquidity stood at roughly 1.4 billion kroner at the end of March, enough to fund operations without a capital raise through year-end, according to management. The stock closed recently at 2.51 kroner, above the analyst consensus of around 2.22 kroner but within a wide range of estimates from 1.20 to 4.20 kroner — reflecting the deep uncertainty about the company’s trajectory. Berenberg trimmed its price target in March to 2.30 kroner from 2.60 but maintained its rating.

Shareholders also approved a new performance-share-unit programme at the annual general meeting on April 10, replacing an old stock-option plan that had no performance conditions. Under the new rules, the CEO can receive PSU allocations of up to 50% of base salary, while other executives are capped at 30%. Volldal voluntarily surrendered 1.5 million old options.

What Comes Next

The market is currently pricing in the promise of the new platform, not the losses of the current business. Whether that optimism is justified will become clearer on May 6, when Nel reveals the technology in detail. The next hard reality check follows on July 15, when the half-year report will show whether the strategic pivot and the new platform are actually generating orders — or just headlines.