Nel ASA's Technological Pivot Hinges on Forthcoming Revenue Report

Nel ASA faces a pivotal moment as its April 22 results must show if a 1.3B NOK order backlog can drive revenue growth, amid investor pressure and a major tech launch.

The coming weeks present a critical test for Norwegian hydrogen specialist Nel ASA. With its stock hovering just above a 52-week low at €0.19, investor patience is wearing thin as the company prepares to release its first-quarter 2026 results on April 22. This report is seen as a crucial indicator of whether a significant backlog of orders can finally translate into sustained revenue growth.

A recent shareholder meeting on April 10 set the stage for this pivotal period. Investors approved a major overhaul of the company's executive compensation framework, replacing a previous stock option program with a new Performance Share Unit scheme that directly ties rewards to measurable corporate goals. This move addresses long-standing demands from institutional investors for greater accountability.

The meeting also formalized the influence of Nel's largest single shareholder. The mandate of Gyuyeon Kang, Executive Vice President at Samsung E&A, was extended on the supervisory board. This cements the strategic partnership after Samsung invested approximately $33 million for a 9.1% stake in March 2025, positioning itself as a preferred global hydrogen supplier.

Despite this strategic positioning, Nel's recent financial performance has been mixed, creating a stark contrast that the April report must resolve. The fourth quarter of 2025 saw revenue decline by 20% year-over-year to 330 million NOK, with EBITDA at a loss of 36 million NOK. However, the PEM division reported a strong quarterly order intake of 686 million NOK, pushing the total order backlog above 1.3 billion NOK.

This disconnect between orders and booked revenue has made analysts cautious. Berenberg's James Carmichael recently highlighted the unpredictable nature of order conversion, leading his firm to maintain a "Hold" rating while cutting its price target to 2.30 NOK. Similarly, Citi reduced its target to 2.40 NOK, also retaining a "Hold" stance. Both institutions point to the unproven market readiness of Nel's new technology platform as a key uncertainty.

That next-generation technology represents the company's long-term bet for a turnaround. Nel plans to commercially launch its new "Next Generation Pressurized Alkaline" electrolyzer system in the first half of 2026. The system is designed to be significantly more compact and up to 60% cheaper to manufacture than current models, supported by EU grants of up to 135 million euros. Large-scale delivery is scheduled for 2027.

To bridge the gap between current operational costs and anticipated future revenue, Nel enters Q2 with a liquidity buffer of roughly 1.6 billion NOK. This war chest is essential for funding the final investments needed to meet the imminent technology launch schedule. The company's immediate challenge is to demonstrate tangible progress in converting its backlog, with the half-year figures due on July 15 providing the next milestone. For now, all eyes are fixed on April 22 for evidence that the operational and strategic shifts are beginning to yield financial results.