Nel ASA's Stock Surge Defies a 73% Order Collapse — July 15 Results Will Settle the Debate

Hydrogen specialist Nel ASA sees shares rally over 57% year-to-date, but first-quarter orders crashed 73%. Analysts remain skeptical with a consensus 'Sell' rating.

The numbers are telling two very different stories at Nel ASA, and investors are betting on the one with more drama. The Norwegian hydrogen specialist has seen its shares rocket 57.28% year-to-date, closing Friday at €0.30 after a 6.35% single-day gain. From the one-month perspective, the advance stands at an even more eye-catching 42.55%, leaving the stock a mere 4.29% shy of its yearly high.

Yet beneath that rally lies a business that, by almost every operational metric, is in retreat. First-quarter order intake crashed 73% to just 85 million Norwegian kroner, while the order backlog shrank 24% to roughly 1.1 billion kroner. Revenue from customer contracts slipped to 148 million kroner, and although the adjusted operating loss narrowed to minus 100 million kroner and the net loss to 144 million kroner, the top-line weakness is hard to overlook.

Nel has responded with cost-cutting, trimming its workforce by 26% from the peak, and maintains a cash pile of 1.4 billion kroner — enough, management says, to fund operations through the end of 2026. That cushion buys time, but it does not buy orders.

A new narrative gains momentum

Chief Commercial Officer Todd Cartwright has been pushing a broader pitch: hydrogen is no longer just for industrial and mobility uses; it is now a tool for energy security, infrastructure resilience, and even defence applications. That shift taps into Europe's push toward decentralised power generation, and Brussels is backing it with more than €1 billion earmarked for nine hydrogen projects across the European Economic Area.

Nel itself is scaling up a new pressurised alkaline electrolyser platform at its Herøya facility, targeting a capacity of up to 1 GW per year. The project is supported by a grant of up to €135 million from the EU Innovation Fund. On the commercial side, Nel secured a $7 million PEM electrolyser order shortly after the first quarter ended — a small but positive signal.

The sector is attracting capital elsewhere, too. Swedish green-steel venture Stegra raised €1.4 billion in equity in April and, on the same day Nel shares rallied, secured an additional $1.5 billion in debt financing. Across the Asia-Pacific region, hydrogen-related projects are expected to represent a market worth roughly $109 billion by 2030.

Analyst consensus remains firmly sceptical

Against that backdrop, the stock's rally looks increasingly detached from the views of institutional analysts. Berenberg rates the shares a "Hold" with a price target of 2.30 Norwegian kroner, Citigroup weighs in at 2.40 kroner, and RBC Capital Markets marks it "Neutral" at 3 kroner. The average price target across 11 analysts currently stands at 2.12 kroner — well below the trading level. The consensus rating, in fact, is "Sell".

Technically, Nel has already climbed well above its 200-day moving average of €0.20, and a resistance band between 3.45 and 3.66 kroner lies ahead. That zone could curtail further gains unless fresh catalyst arrives.

All eyes on 15 July

The next major test comes on 15 July, when Nel releases its second-quarter figures. Chief Executive Håkon Volldal has pointed to active negotiations with multiple potential customers in Europe and North America, with project sizes ranging from 50 MW to 150 MW. The key question is whether those conversations convert into signed contracts.

If order intake rebounds visibly, the new security-and-infrastructure thesis gains credibility. If it remains subdued, the recent share-price surge — already dismissed by many analysts as overdone — will look increasingly unsupported by fundamentals. The market is effectively putting Nel on probation, and the July numbers will deliver the verdict.