Nel ASA’s Samsung Alliance Addresses the One Thing Holding Back Green Hydrogen: Bankability

Nel ASA's share price rallies 77% YTD while Q1 order intake plunges 73%. New Samsung E&A partnership offers single-guarantee electrolyzer system, but analysts remain bearish with no buy ratings.

Nel ASA’s share price has been on a tear, but the operating numbers tell a completely different story. The disconnect between a 50% monthly rally and an order intake that collapsed by 73% is stark — and the market’s attention is now fixed on whether the company’s new partnership with Samsung E&A can finally bridge that gap.

The two Norwegian electrolyser specialists unveiled CompassH2-A+ in Rotterdam, a 100-megawatt solution for pressurised alkaline electrolysis that rounds out the joint portfolio with a third technology line. The system uses containerised 25 MW stack modules, cutting the footprint by half. Hydrogen exits at 15 barg, simplifying downstream compression, and purity hits 99.999 mole-percent. Nel puts the stack efficiency at 48.8 kWh per kilogram, with a core area of 7,500 square metres.

Yet the real innovation is not in the stack. Samsung wraps the entire system — including the electrolyser stacks — into a single guarantee. For project developers wrestling with fragmented warranties across multiple counterparties, that structure can unlock bankability. Combined with Samsung’s EPC capability for downstream products such as green ammonia, e-methanol and sustainable aviation fuel, the platform extends well beyond the electrolyser itself. The offering arrives just six months after the previous CompassH2-P platform, showing how quickly the partners are moving.

Nel first turned heads in May with its own pressurised alkaline platform, developed over eight years and tested at full scale in Herøya. The company promised system CAPEX reductions of 40% to 60% compared with current solutions. Now that technology has been commercialised inside the Samsung alliance, adding a third arrow to the quiver that already covered atmospheric alkaline and PEM electrolysis.

The stock, listed in Germany, traded around €0.34 to €0.35 on Thursday. Since the start of the year it has surged 77.6% by one count and 81.8% by another, depending on the intraday snapshot. The one-month gain sits at 53%, and the twelve-month return is 68%. The high for 2025 was set on 25 May at €0.36.

None of this excitement is reflected in analyst ratings. Among the 13 analysts covering Nel, seven rate it a sell and six a hold. Not a single buy recommendation exists. The median price target stands at 2.12 Norwegian kroner — well below the current level. The rally may have been turbocharged by short covering, and an insider purchase by board chair Arvid Moss (100,000 shares at the end of April) added a note of confidence, but orders remain the only metric that can vindicate the move.

Operationally, the picture is sober. First-quarter revenue came in at 148 million Norwegian kroner, down 5% year-on-year. Order intake cratered 73% to just 8.5 million euro. The order book shrank 24% to 1.113 billion kroner (roughly €111 million), while cash stood at 1.4 billion kroner. The EBITDA loss was 100 million kroner. Management has acknowledged that the current backlog is not enough to guarantee meaningful plant utilisation in 2027. At Herøya, two older 500 MW assembly lines stand idle, and the ramp-up of the new platform could trigger impairment charges on those legacy assets.

The next milestone comes this quarter: Nel expects an €11 million grant from the EU Innovation Fund to support the industrialisation of the pressurised alkaline platform. That will be followed by half-year results on 15 July. Investors will then look for one thing above all — how much of the hydrogen hype has translated into firm orders. The Samsung alliance gives project financiers a cleaner risk picture, but a stronger guarantee structure is not the same as a signed contract. Without those, the rally remains a bet on a future that has not yet arrived.