Nel ASA's Rally Meets a Triple Threat: Plunging Orders, US Policy Risk, and a 15% Weekly Drop

Nel ASA shares drop 15% in a week as order intake collapses 73% and a key US hydrogen tax credit faces elimination, endangering future demand.

The Norwegian hydrogen equipment maker Nel ASA has been one of the sector's standout performers in 2026, with shares still up around 53% year-to-date. But that rally is now under pressure from three converging headwinds: a sharp sell-off in the stock, a dramatic collapse in order intake, and a looming threat to a key US tax credit that could undermine demand.

Nel's shares closed at €0.29 on Thursday after a 6.5% single-day drop, extending the seven-day decline to roughly 15%. The stock now sits nearly 20% below its 52-week high of €0.37, reached on May 25. The pullback comes without any fresh company-specific news, pointing to profit-taking after a strong run that had lifted the stock more than 70% from its 200-day moving average of €0.21.

The annualized 30-day volatility stands at almost 99%, underscoring how sensitive Nel's shares remain to shifts in hydrogen sentiment. Investors are increasingly nervous about a political risk out of Washington. Under President Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill Act", the Section 45V production tax credit for clean hydrogen could be eliminated from 2026 onward. Some protection exists for projects that break ground before the law takes effect and enter service by end-2027, but the uncertainty is already weighing on project economics.

That matters directly for Nel. In April 2026, its US subsidiary won a roughly $7 million order to supply PEM electrolyzer equipment to the Douglas County Public Utility District in East Wenatchee, Washington. The utility plans to produce green hydrogen from hydropower — a first for a public US utility operating a Nel electrolysis plant. If the tax credit disappears, similar projects may struggle to pencil out.

Orders evaporate as the operational gap widens

The political headwind arrives on top of weak fundamentals. Nel reported first-quarter revenue of 148.1 million Norwegian kroner, down 4.66% year-on-year. The EBITDA loss widened to 100 million kroner, while the net loss came in at 144 million kroner. On a per-share basis, the loss improved to the equivalent of NOK 0.08 from NOK 0.10 a year earlier, but that offers little comfort.

More alarming is the order intake, which plunged 73% to just 85 million kroner. The order backlog contracted 24% to 1.1 billion kroner. The company has already cut its workforce by 26% from the peak to around 300 employees, trimming costs but also reducing production and project execution capacity. Management has acknowledged that the current pipeline is too thin to support a meaningful utilization rate in 2027.

Cash and equivalents stood at roughly 1.44 billion kroner at the end of the quarter, supplemented by up to 135 million euros in EU Innovation Fund grants for the Herøya gigawatt factory. That financial cushion buys time, but without a significant recovery in orders, the clock is ticking.

A technology promise hanging on commercial proof

Nel's main positive narrative remains the new generation of pressurized alkaline electrolyzers unveiled in early May. The company claims capital expenditure savings of 40% to 60% compared to standard systems, with costs below $1,450 per kilowatt for a 25-MW configuration. The platform is the result of over eight years of development and successful prototype testing at the Herøya site in Norway.

An investment decision taken in December 2025 targets an initial production capacity of 1 GW per year at Herøya, with a roadmap to scale up to 4 GW. The EU Innovation Fund is backing the industrialization with a grant of up to 135 million euros, covering up to 60% of eligible costs. In the second quarter, Nel expects to receive an additional 11 million euros in EU support for the platform's commercialization.

The technology promise also gained institutional credibility through a partnership with major shareholder Samsung E&A, unveiled at the World Hydrogen Summit in Rotterdam. The two companies have launched CompassH2-A+, a standardized 100-MW electrolyzer configuration that bundles Nel's alkaline technology with a unified performance guarantee. Samsung E&A brings EPC expertise for downstream applications such as green ammonia, e-methanol, and sustainable aviation fuel. For project developers — and especially for banks financing hydrogen projects — the integrated offering could reduce execution risk significantly.

Yet the market is looking for tangible results. Nel's existing order book remains thin, and the Samsung partnership has yet to translate into firm contracts. The next major test comes on July 15, when the company publishes its half-year report. Investors will be scrutinizing order intake, cash burn, and any signs that the CompassH2-A+ platform is generating real pipeline activity.

Until then, the stock sits in an uneasy holding pattern — still up strongly for the year, but vulnerable to a combination of political uncertainty, weak orders, and profit-taking after a rapid run-up. The July report will reveal whether Nel's technological turnaround has the commercial backbone to match its narrative.