Nel ASA’s Rally Hits a Political Roadblock Amid Collapsing Order Intake

Norwegian electrolyser maker Nel ASA sees stock fall as Trump's bill threatens key tax credit and order backlog shrinks 24%, despite new tech launches.

Nel ASA’s shares have staged one of the most eye-catching recoveries in the hydrogen space this year, rallying over 64% since January. But the tone has soured. The stock closed at €0.31 on Wednesday, down 9.24% over the past week, as two distinct clouds gather over the Norwegian electrolyser maker: a political threat from Washington and a domestic order book that has all but dried up.

The sell-off this week is partly linked to the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" advanced by President Trump, which would kill off the Section 45V tax credit for clean hydrogen from 2026. That subsidy has been a pillar of the US green hydrogen economy, and without grandfathering provisions — projects must break ground before the bill becomes law and come online by end-2027 — many developments could struggle to secure financing. The risk is not theoretical for Nel. In April 2026, its US subsidiary won a $7 million order to supply PEM electrolyser equipment to the Douglas County Public Utility District in Washington State. It was the first time a publicly owned US utility had bought and operated a Nel system. That very demand channel is now threatened.

At the same time, the company’s underlying health remains fragile. First-quarter revenue came in at 148.1 million Norwegian kroner, down 4.66% year-on-year. The EBITDA loss stayed deep at minus 100 million kroner, though it improved by 15 million kroner from the prior-year period. The loss per share narrowed from 0.10 to 0.08 kroner. But the real red flag is the order pipeline. New orders slumped 73% to just 85 million kroner, and the total order backlog shrank 24% to 1.1 billion kroner. Management has been blunt: the current backlog is insufficient to provide meaningful factory utilisation in 2027.

Nel’s response has been to double down on technology and partnerships. At the World Hydrogen Summit in Rotterdam, the group unveiled CompassH2-A+ alongside its largest shareholder, Samsung E&A. The offering packages Nel’s pressurised alkaline electrolyser into a 100-megawatt configuration backed by a single performance guarantee — a feature designed to make banks more comfortable financing hydrogen projects, which often carry high execution risk. Samsung also brings EPC expertise for downstream applications such as green ammonia, e-methanol, and sustainable aviation fuel. Separately, Nel launched the commercial version of its new alkaline platform in early May, an eight-year development effort that the company claims cuts investment costs by 40–60% compared to conventional systems. The total installed cost for a 25-MW plant is pitched at under $1,450 per kilowatt, versus roughly $3,000 for current industrial hydrogen projects.

The technological promise, however, has yet to convert into hard orders. CEO Håkon Volldal is in talks with several potential clients for projects of 50 to 150 MW in Europe and North America, but no binding contracts have been signed. The PEM division is also suffering from delayed project deliveries and frozen US research grants that have been a drag since late 2025.

Analysts remain deeply sceptical. Not a single broker rates the stock a buy. Berenberg’s James Carmichael cut his price target from 2.60 to 2.30 kroner, pointing to the persistently weak order intake. The consensus target stands at 2.14 kroner, with a majority of analysts recommending a sell. One small bright spot: short interest has fallen to 1.13% of outstanding shares, helping to fuel the earlier rally, but that alone is not enough to mask the fundamental shortfalls.

Nel is not without financial ammunition. It holds 1.44 billion kroner in cash, enough, management says, to fund operations through the end of 2026. The EU Innovation Fund is chipping in up to €135 million for the gigawatt-scale factory at Herøya, where capacity is initially being ramped to 1 GW per year with a long-term target of 4 GW. A first tranche of roughly €11 million is expected in the current quarter. The workforce has already been trimmed 26% from its peak to about 300 employees, cutting costs but also narrowing the company’s production and project-delivery bandwidth.

The next major inflection point comes on 15 July, when Nel publishes its second-quarter results. A trading blackout begins in early July, so management will be silent until then. Between now and that date, the share price — still hovering well above its 200-day moving average of €0.21 — will be driven largely by sector news and ETF inflows. What matters most on 15 July is whether the new alkaline platform and the Samsung partnership have generated any tangible orders. Without a turnaround in order intake, the valuation premium that rests on technological promises will become increasingly difficult to defend.