Nel ASA’s Rally Hits a Ceiling as New Electrolyzer Costs Converge with a Cash-Powered Wait

Nel ASA shares hover near 52-week high after rallying 80% on technology breakthrough that could halve electrolyzer costs, but Q1 revenue fell 4.7% and losses persist. All eyes on Q2 results July 15.

The spectacular run in Nel ASA shares has paused, leaving the stock hovering near a 52-week high while investors digest a technology breakthrough that could slash electrolyzer costs by half — but only if orders finally materialise. After surging more than 80% since mid-April, the Norwegian hydrogen specialist saw its shares slip 1.6% on Thursday to €0.340 in Tradegate trading, having touched a multi-month peak of €0.366 just two days earlier.

That peak, reached on 25 May, marks the top of a rally that has nearly doubled the stock from its March low of €0.18. Year-to-date the gain stands at roughly 81%, and the share price now trades a full 66% above its 200-day moving average of €0.21. The current sideways drift is widely viewed as a digestion period after such a rapid climb, with the relative-strength index hovering near 50 — neither overbought nor oversold. Annualised volatility remains extreme at 100%.

What gave the rally its initial thrust was a technical milestone rather than news from the company. Nel launched its new generation of alkaline pressure electrolysers in early May, promising green hydrogen at an output pressure of 30 bar and driving system costs for a 25-megawatt plant below US$1,450 per kilowatt. That represents a dramatic reduction from the US$3,000-plus per kilowatt typical of earlier industrial projects, and if confirmed in commercial operation it would fundamentally reshape Nel’s competitive position in the fast-growing green hydrogen market.

Yet the operational reality lags well behind the market’s enthusiasm. In the first quarter of 2026, Nel generated revenue of 148.10 million Norwegian kroner — a 4.7% decline year-on-year. The net loss per share narrowed to -0.08 NOK from -0.10 NOK a year earlier, while EBITDA improved to -100 million NOK from -115 million NOK. Analysts have now scrapped earlier break-even forecasts and expect a net loss for the full year. The disconnect between market cap and shrinking sales is stark.

One stabilising factor is the company’s cash position: at the end of March, Nel held roughly 1.4 billion NOK in reserves, giving it time to engineer an operational turnaround without immediate financing pressure. The combination of a strong balance sheet and a potentially game-changing cost reduction in electrolysers has kept the narrative alive, but the stock remains, for now, a bet on future margins while losses continue.

All eyes now turn to 15 July, when Nel releases its second-quarter and half-year results. Investors will scrutinise the order book to see whether the new electrolyser platform has begun converting technological promise into commercial traction. Without a visible pipeline of large contracts, the recent share-price gains will rest increasingly on technical momentum — and that, as the current consolidation shows, can evaporate quickly.