Nel ASA's Rally Defies a 73% Order Collapse as Traders Bet on a Cost-Cutting Catalyst

Nel ASA shares flirt with a 52-week high after a 54% surge, but order intake plummeted 73% and backlog hit multi-year lows, exposing divergence between market momentum and operational reality.

Nel ASA finds itself at an unusual crossroads: its share price is flirting with a 52-week high, yet the underlying business is sending unmistakably weaker signals. After a 30-day surge of around 54% that lifted the stock to €0.334 on Tradegate, the Norwegian electrolyser specialist saw a mid-week reversal, slipping 2.1% from an intraday gain of 1.2%. That divergence between market momentum and operational reality is becoming harder to ignore.

The root of the caution is a sharp deterioration in order intake. Nel booked just 85 million Norwegian kroner in new orders during the first quarter — a 73% plunge from the prior-year period. The overall order backlog fell 24% to 1.1 billion kroner, the lowest level in years. These figures, released on April 22, underscore a business that has yet to convert technological ambition into consistent commercial traction.

That ambition centers on Nel’s new generation of pressurised alkaline electrolysers, which the company began marketing commercially on May 6. The platform promises fully installed costs below $1,450 per kilowatt for a 25-megawatt plant operating at 30 bar with 99.99% purity. The industrialization effort at Herøya is already underway, with an annual capacity target of up to one gigawatt, eventually rising to four gigawatts — backed by a potential EU Innovation Fund grant of up to €135 million. A first tranche of €11 million is expected in the second quarter of 2026.

Technically, the stock has entered a critical zone. The 52-week high of €0.36 sits just 3% above the current price, and the relative strength index at 49.9 points to neutral territory rather than overheating. Chart analysts note that a sustained break above the resistance level could open the path toward the 4 NOK mark. Conversely, a failure would likely send the shares back into the support band between 2.73 and 2.75 NOK — a potential 25% drop from today’s levels. The 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages, at €0.24 and €0.21 respectively, provide a layered safety net underneath.

Interestingly, the recent rally has been selective within the hydrogen sector. Nel has gained nearly 70% over three months, but peers have outpaced it by a wide margin: ITM Power surged roughly 164%, Ballard Power 163%, and Plug Power 105%. That relative underperformance reflects ongoing investor skepticism about Nel’s ability to convert pipeline into orders.

The balance sheet offers some cushion. Cash reserves stood at 1.44 billion Norwegian kroner at the end of the first quarter, while the operating loss (EBITDA) narrowed from –115 million to –100 million kroner. Still, revenue slipped 5% to 148 million kroner, and the net loss amounted to 144 million kroner. Until those metrics move decisively toward positive territory, the stock remains a hostage to sector sentiment rather than company fundamentals.

The next major test will come with the half-year results, which must demonstrate that the new electrolyser platform is generating real orders. If the numbers show traction, the narrative could shift from speculative rebound to earnings-driven recovery. Until then, volatility is likely to dominate — and the gap between the share price and the order book will continue to demand an explanation.