Nel ASA's Rally and the Widening Gap Between Share Price and Orders

Nel ASA's stock rallies near year highs despite a 73% collapse in Q1 new orders. A new electrolyser platform offers long-term promise, but fundamentals remain weak.

The Norwegian electrolyser specialist Nel ASA has delivered a stark contradiction in recent weeks. Its stock has surged to within striking distance of a new high for the year, yet the underlying business continues to generate numbers that tell a very different story.

Shares closed at 3.63 Norwegian kroner in Oslo on Tuesday, a 1.54 per cent gain, and the equity has now climbed roughly 79 per cent since the start of 2026. In euro terms, the stock trades near €0.34, just shy of the year's peak of €0.36. The weekly advance alone stands at 20.46 per cent. The broader hydrogen sector has lifted alongside Nel — ITM Power added 5.76 per cent in London and Ballard Power rose 7.22 per cent — but the move has been uneven, and Nel's rally lacks a fresh catalyst from within the company itself.

Orders plunge while the share price flies

Nel reported first-quarter 2026 revenue from customer contracts of 148 million Norwegian kroner, 5 per cent lower than the same period last year. Total revenue and other income came in at 152 million kroner. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation posted a loss of 100 million kroner, an improvement of 15 million kroner year-on-year but still deep in negative territory.

More troubling is the order book. New orders during the quarter totalled just 85 million kroner — a collapse of 73 per cent compared with the prior year. The order backlog shrank to 1.113 billion kroner, down 24 per cent from a year earlier. Cash on hand stood at 1.443 billion kroner, providing some financial breathing room but not a replacement for new customer commitments.

A new platform, but no immediate payoff

On 6 May, Nel unveiled its pressurised alkaline electrolyser platform, a system that the company says is the product of more than eight years of development and full-scale prototype testing at its Herøya facility. The new design is intended to simplify renewable hydrogen projects, reduce costs and improve scalability. Nel claims that for a 25-megawatt installation, the capital expenditure works out to under $1,450 per kilowatt — a 40 to 60 per cent reduction compared with previous solutions.

The technology story is compelling. It gives Nel a clear argument in the race for large-scale project wins. Yet so far, that argument has not translated into stable order intake or positive margins. The steep drop in new orders and the shrinking backlog suggest the gap between platform launch and commercial breakthrough remains wide.

Momentum trade or fundamental shift?

Market participants are currently trading the hydrogen and electrolyser narrative rather than a newly confirmed corporate trigger. The stock's recent run has been powered by momentum and trading activity, not a cascade of fresh contracts or an upward revision to revenue guidance. Such moves can extend themselves, but they also become vulnerable when tangible results fail to materialise.

The next test is straightforward: if Nel can report a stabilisation in the order book and secure initial large-scale contracts for its new platform in the coming quarters, the price rally could gain fundamental underpinning. If order intake continues to weaken, the stock's rally will rest on increasingly shaky ground.

For now, Nel presents two divergent pictures — a technically strong share price and an operationally weak order pipeline. Until further commercial proof emerges, this remains a momentum-driven trade hovering near its annual high.