Nel ASA's Rally Advances on Hype Alone as Orders Plunge and Analysts Shun the Stock

Nel ASA's shares rally 80% in 2026, but 7 of 13 analysts rate it a sell. Orders crash 73%, cash burn deepens, and a new alkaline platform awaits its first large-scale contract.

The gap between Nel ASA's share price and its underlying business health has rarely been wider. Since the start of the year, the Norwegian hydrogen company's stock has surged roughly 80 percent, touching levels just two percent shy of its 52-week high. Yet not a single analyst covering the company recommends buying. Seven of the 13 rate it a sell; the remaining six say hold. The average price target sits at 2.12 Norwegian kroner — roughly 45 percent below the current trading level.

The latest leg of the rally was ignited not by corporate news but by external commentary. Sunfire CEO Nils Aldag predicted German electrolysis capacity could reach five gigawatts within five years, a statement that propelled Nel's shares nearly 14 percent higher in a single session. The stock now changes hands at around €0.35, but the bullish narrative has yet to translate into tangible commercial progress.

Order book shrinks as new platform waits for traction

Nel’s first-quarter 2026 results painted a starkly different picture from the market's enthusiasm. Order intake collapsed 73 percent year-on-year to just 85 million Norwegian kroner, while the order backlog shrank 24 percent to 1.1 billion kroner. Revenue declined to 152 million kroner (the secondary source reports 148 million kroner, but the primary figure is used here for consistency with the more detailed source). The EBITDA loss deepened to minus 100 million kroner. Nel is burning through cash, with a reserve of roughly 1.4 billion kroner providing a temporary buffer.

Management has already taken the knife to costs, cutting headcount by 26 percent from its peak and reducing personnel expenses by 21 percent. But the restructuring came at a price: the company admits that manufacturing and delivery capacity have been impaired as a result. For 2027, the current pipeline of orders is insufficient to keep capacity utilisation at sensible levels — a warning from the CEO, not from analysts.

New alkaline platform promises a step change in costs

In May, after more than eight years of development, Nel launched its new pressurised alkaline electrolyser system. The platform aims to slash capital expenditure by 40 to 60 percent compared to existing solutions and cut project execution timelines. Industrialisation is underway at the Herøya site in Norway, where an initial production capacity of one gigawatt per year is being built, with a roadmap to reach four gigawatts annually.

The European Union is chipping in up to €135 million from its Innovation Fund, covering as much as 60 percent of eligible costs. Nel expects the first tranche — roughly €11 million — in the second quarter. That funding is tied directly to scaling the new alkaline technology.

So far, however, no large-scale orders have materialised for the platform. CEO Håkon Volldal has stated that the company is in advanced talks with potential clients for projects between 50 and 150 megawatts. A contract of that magnitude would transform the outlook, but no deal has been signed.

PEM segment shows repeat business but remains lumpy

While alkaline orders remain elusive, Nel’s PEM division is demonstrating some traction with repeat customers. After the first quarter closed, Nel Hydrogen US secured a follow-on order from Mesure Process, a subsidiary of Synqo Energies, worth around $7 million for containerised PEM electrolysers destined for a European project. The units will supply hydrogen refuelling stations and industrial applications, with commissioning planned for 2027.

The PEM segment saw weaker revenues in the first quarter but improved project margins. Its order backlog stands at 843 million kroner, while the alkaline backlog is 270 million kroner. Modular PEM systems in the 2.5 to 50 MW range, deliverable in under 12 months, are seeing the most demand.

Catalysts ahead: EU funds and Q2 report

Nel now enters a quiet period ahead of its half-year results, due on 15 July. Until then, no investor communication is planned — a two-week blackout that leaves the market guessing whether the new alkaline platform has left any imprint on the order intake.

Management has expressed confidence that additional PEM orders will be signed before the end of the first half. The EU Innovation Fund disbursement, the $7 million PEM order from Mesure Process, and any potential alkaline deal will all be under scrutiny when the numbers land in July.

Until those figures materialise, the stock’s trajectory remains divorced from the company’s operational reality. The technology story has improved, the balance sheet provides a runway, but the order book is not yet validating the market’s optimism. Nel’s stock is racing ahead of its business — and the July report will either bridge that gap or widen it.