Nel ASA’s Next-Gen Electrolyzer Halves Industry Cost Targets, Yet Order Pipeline Contracts 24%

Nel ASA shares surged 75% in 2026 on new low-cost electrolyser, but profit-taking and shrinking order backlog signal caution. Samsung E&A holds 9.1% stake.

The biggest cost-cutting breakthrough in Nel ASA’s history collided head-on with weakening demand this week, sending the stock on a rollercoaster ride that ended with profit-taking. On Monday, shares of the Norwegian hydrogen specialist touched a 52-week high of €0.366 (3.66 NOK), only to tumble more than 7% on Tuesday as traders locked in gains from an extraordinary rally. The pullback was driven less by fresh bad news than by the sheer magnitude of the run: the stock has surged roughly 75% since the start of 2026 and has more than doubled from its March lows near €0.18.

At the heart of the excitement is Nel’s new generation of pressurised alkaline electrolysers, unveiled in early May. The platform targets a fully installed cost of below $1,450 per kilowatt, slashing current industry averages that often exceed $3,000 per kW. That kind of efficiency gain has the potential to unblock large-scale green hydrogen projects that have stalled on economics. The company’s balance sheet backs the ambition: around 1.4 billion NOK in cash provides plenty of runway to commercialise the technology.

Yet the operational reality remains stubbornly mixed. First-quarter revenue slipped 5% year-on-year to 148 million NOK, while the adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed by 15 million NOK to negative 100 million NOK. More worrying for the long-term outlook, the order backlog shrank 24% from a year earlier to roughly 1.1 billion NOK. The divergence between a promising product pipeline and a shrinking order book has left the stock caught between speculative momentum and fundamentals.

Monday’s new high failed to hold a critical technical level. On the Oslo exchange, Nel surged nearly 15% on Friday to an intraday peak of 3.66 NOK, briefly piercing resistance at 3.615 NOK before closing the week at 3.575 NOK. The Stochastic RSI triggered a fresh buy signal from oversold territory, but the inability to close above resistance — combined with a 30-day annualised volatility above 100% — underscores how far the stock remains from a stable uptrend. The share now trades more than 60% above its 200-day moving average, a stretched position that often invites mean-reversion trading.

Adding a strategic anchor is Samsung E&A, the South Korean industrial group that has held a 9.1% stake since March 2025, making it the largest single shareholder. Samsung’s influence deepened in May when its manager Gyuyeon Kang joined Nel’s board, signalling a long-term commitment that supports the hydrogen narrative even as short-term orders disappoint.

For now, the story is one of promise versus proof. The new electrolyser platform could reset the hydrogen cost curve, but until the order backlog starts growing again, the rally remains a bet on future potential rather than current earning power. The next quarterly reports will be crucial in determining whether the 3.615 NOK resistance level becomes support — or a ceiling.