Nel ASA’s New Electrolyzer Promises 60% Cost Cut, but Samsung’s Wrap Guarantee May Be the Real Game-Changer

Despite a 73% order drop, Nel's share price nears 52-week high driven by a new pressurized alkaline electrolyzer and a Samsung partnership that improves project bankability.

Nel ASA’s share price has surged roughly 80% year to date, hovering near a 52-week high of €0.36. The rally is striking for a company whose order intake collapsed 73% in the first quarter and whose backlog has shrunk by nearly a quarter. Behind the disconnect lie two distinct catalysts: a new pressurized alkaline platform that slashes system costs by as much as 60%, and a partnership with Samsung E&A that tackles a problem the hydrogen industry has failed to crack for years – project financeability.

At the heart of the Samsung collaboration is CompassH2-A+, a 100 MW pressurized alkaline solution unveiled in Rotterdam. The system uses containerized 25 MW stack modules that reduce the plant’s footprint by 50% and deliver 40 tonnes of hydrogen per day at 99.999% purity. Nel’s stack efficiency comes in at 48.8 kWh per kilogram, with a core area of 7,500 square metres. The technology slots into a broader portfolio that now covers atmospheric alkaline, pressurized alkaline and PEM electrolysis – all three offered jointly with Samsung.

But the headline feature for developers and financiers is the wrap guarantee. Samsung provides a single, full-system warranty that covers the entire installation, including the stacks. In a sector where guarantees have traditionally been split across multiple components and counterparties, a unified structure can dramatically improve a project’s bankability. Combined with a pre-fabrication approach that cuts upfront engineering time, the offer aims to shorten project timelines and clarify liability. Samsung also brings EPC expertise for downstream applications – green ammonia, e-methanol and sustainable aviation fuel – extending the value chain beyond the electrolyser itself.

CompassH2-A+ follows CompassH2-P, announced just six months earlier, and underlines the pace at which the partnership is expanding its product suite. For Nel, the tie-up provides something the company has long lacked: a route to credible, financeable projects that can turn its technology into revenue.

The Cost Revolution

Independently of the Samsung deal, Nel is pushing ahead with its own generation of pressurized alkaline electrolysers. The company began commercial sales of the new platform in May 2026 after eight years of development and successful prototype testing at its Herøya site in Norway. The claimed cost reduction is steep: system costs are 40% to 60% lower than current market solutions, with shorter project timelines and reduced execution risk bringing down the levelised cost of hydrogen.

Industrialisation is already underway. An investment decision was taken in December 2025, and production capacity at Herøya is being scaled to an initial 1 GW per year, with a medium-term target of 4 GW. The European Union is backing the expansion with up to €135 million from its Innovation Fund, covering as much as 60% of eligible costs. An €11 million tranche of that grant is expected to land in the second quarter of 2026.

Nel is also developing a PEM prototype stack planned for 2026 that aims to cut stack-level costs by roughly 70%. The technology, however, remains several years from commercial availability.

The Numbers Tell a Different Story

None of these advances have yet translated into robust order flow. In the first quarter of 2026, Nel posted revenue of 148 million Norwegian kroner (roughly €15 million), down 5% from a year earlier. Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation came in at minus 100 million kroner – an improvement of 15 million from Q1 2025 but still deep in the red.

Order intake plunged to just 85 million kroner, a drop of 73% year-on-year. The order backlog contracted 24% to 1.1 billion kroner (about €111 million). Management has acknowledged that the current backlog is insufficient to secure meaningful utilisation of production capacity in 2027.

Nel exited the quarter with 1.4 billion kroner in cash – a cushion that buys time but cannot replace large-scale orders. The company has also trimmed costs aggressively: headcount has been cut 26% from its peak to around 300 employees, a 19% reduction from the prior-year quarter.

A rare bright spot came in April, when Nel Hydrogen US received a $7 million follow-on order from Mesure Process, a subsidiary of Synqo Energies, for containerised PEM systems destined for a European project supplying hydrogen refuelling stations and industrial users. Nel sees strong demand for modular PEM solutions in the 2.5 MW to 50 MW range, which can typically be delivered in under 12 months.

Analysts Hold Fire

Despite the stock’s ascent, the analyst community remains unmoved. Of 13 analysts covering Nel, seven rate the shares a sell and the remaining six a hold – zero buy ratings. The average 12-month price target stands at 2.12 Norwegian kroner (roughly €0.19), nearly 45% below the current price. The range stretches from one krone to 4.20 kroner.

The tension is plain: the technology story has grown stronger, but the order book has not followed. The market is betting that the new platform and the Samsung alliance will eventually convert pipeline discussions into binding contracts. Nel’s half-year results, due on 15 July, will be an early test of whether that conversion has begun. Without a series of tangible project wins, the rally rests on promise rather than proof.