Nel ASA’s High-Stakes Gamble: Can a New Electrolyser Platform Rescue a Sinking Order Book?

Nel ASA shares hit a 52-week high as EU funding backs a new alkaline electrolyser platform, but analysts remain bearish amid a 73% order plunge and mounting losses.

The numbers tell a troubling story, yet the stock is flying. Nel ASA has seen its order intake collapse by 73% to just 85 million Norwegian kroner in the first quarter, while revenue slipped to 152 million kroner. The net loss, though improved, still stands at a painful 144 million kroner. But investors have looked past the red ink, pushing the share price to a 52-week high of €0.28 — a gain of roughly 44% since the start of the year. The catalyst? A combination of EU cash and a technological gamble that could either revive the company or saddle it with costly write-downs.

The centrepiece of that gamble arrives on May 6, when Nel unveils a new pressurised alkaline electrolyser platform at its Herøya facility. CEO Håkon Volldal is promising nothing less than a step-change in green hydrogen economics. The modular outdoor system is designed to slash capital expenditure by 40% to 60% per installation, while operating expenses could drop by as much as 20%. This isn’t a slide-deck concept — a functioning physical unit will be on display.

Brussels has thrown its weight behind the project. The EU Innovation Fund is contributing up to €135 million, covering roughly 60% of eligible technology development costs. An initial milestone payment of more than €10 million is imminent. Separately, the bloc has opened a €600 million funding pot for cross-border energy infrastructure, adding another potential source of support for Nel’s ambitions.

But the transition comes with risks. Two older production lines in Herøya are already idled, and a successful launch of the new platform could trigger impairment charges on those legacy assets. Commercial-scale manufacturing isn’t expected until 2027, leaving a long gap during which Nel must fund development without the cushion of robust sales.

The cost-cutting programme is biting. Headcount has been reduced by roughly a quarter, and personnel expenses have fallen by more than a fifth. The EBITDA loss narrowed to 100 million kroner in Q1, an improvement of 15 million kroner year-on-year. With liquid assets of around 1.44 billion kroner, the company has a comfortable cash buffer — but it is burning through it while waiting for the new technology to generate revenue.

Analysts remain deeply sceptical. Not a single one of the twelve covering Nel recommends buying the stock; the majority advise selling. Berenberg trimmed its price target from 2.60 to 2.30 kroner in March, while the consensus target sits at roughly 2.13 kroner, with a wide range of 1.20 to 4.20 kroner reflecting the deep uncertainty. The current share price of around 0.28 euros (roughly 2.10 kroner) is already pricing in the platform’s success — not the underlying losses.

Volldal is trying to open new fronts. He has increasingly positioned hydrogen as a tool for energy security and defence, pitching decentralised power generation for military and critical infrastructure applications. A recent order worth $7 million for containerised PEM electrolysers destined for European hydrogen refuelling stations and industrial clients lends some credibility to that narrative, though deliveries are not scheduled until 2027.

The market’s verdict will come in two instalments. First, the May 6 event in Herøya must demonstrate that the promised cost reductions are real and that the technology can win future orders. Then, on July 15, the second-quarter results will provide the first hard evidence of whether the strategy is translating into commercial traction. Until then, Nel remains a story of high hopes, EU subsidies, and a dangerously thin order book — a combination that has made for a spectacular rally, but could just as easily unravel.