Nel ASA's Chairman Bets Personal Capital on Hydrogen Pivot as EU Funding Fuels Rally

Nel ASA shares hit a 52-week high amid EU funding and a chairman's insider purchase, even as Q1 revenue fell and order intake collapsed 73%.

The disconnect between Nel ASA's soaring share price and its struggling fundamentals has rarely been wider. The Norwegian electrolyser specialist hit a 52-week high of EUR 0.28 on Thursday, propelled by a EUR 600 million EU funding programme for cross-border energy infrastructure and a rare vote of confidence from the boardroom. Trading volumes surged to five times the daily average as investors piled in.

Insider Signal Amidst Operational Headwinds

Chairman Arvid Moss purchased 100,000 Nel shares at an average price of around NOK 2.25, marking his first reported buy since taking the role. The transaction, disclosed under the EU Market Abuse Regulation and Norwegian securities law, comes at a time when the company's operating performance remains under pressure. Moss's decision to deploy personal capital sends a clear signal that the board sees value where many analysts do not.

The stock has now gained roughly 43 percent since the start of the year, with the past 30 days alone accounting for over 44 percent of that advance. Sector peer Ballard Power Systems managed just three percent over the same period, underscoring how disproportionately Nel is benefiting from the EU's clean energy push.

Q1 Numbers Tell a Different Story

The first-quarter results paint a far more sobering picture. Revenue fell to NOK 152 million, while EBITDA came in at minus NOK 100 million — a NOK 15 million improvement on the prior-year period. The net loss narrowed to NOK 144 million from NOK 179 million, helped by a more than 20 percent reduction in personnel costs.

The order intake, however, collapsed by 73 percent to just NOK 85 million, dragging the order backlog down 24 percent to roughly NOK 1.1 billion. Revenue from customer contracts stood at NOK 148 million, five percent below the year-ago figure. CEO Håkon Volldal acknowledged the quarter was "quite quiet" on the order front but pointed to expected PEM contracts before the end of the first half.

Nel ended the period with NOK 1.44 billion in cash and equivalents — enough, the company says, to fund full-year operations in 2026. An EU grant of EUR 11 million is also expected in the second quarter.

The May 6 Catalyst

All eyes are now on May 6, when Nel will unveil a new pressurised alkaline electrolyser platform at its Herøya facility. Volldal has described it as a "quantum leap" — the technology promises to cut capital expenditure by 40 to 60 percent and operating costs by 10 to 20 percent. The EU's Innovation Fund is backing the project with up to EUR 135 million, covering roughly 60 percent of eligible expenses.

Crucially, Nel is showing a physical installation, not just a concept. The first 500 megawatts of production capacity are expected to be operational by the end of 2026, with series deliveries slated for 2027. The PEM division has already secured a USD 7 million order since the quarter closed, offering a glimpse of potential commercial traction.

Yet the transition carries risks. Two existing 500 MW production lines for atmospheric electrolysers at Herøya remain idle, and the launch of the new platform could trigger impairment charges on those legacy assets.

Analyst Skepticism Persists

The sell-side remains unconvinced by the market euphoria. None of the twelve analysts covering Nel recommend buying the stock, with the majority advising clients to sell. The average price target stands at NOK 2.13 — well below current levels. Berenberg maintained its "hold" rating but cut its target to NOK 2.30, with analyst James Carmichael citing unpredictable revenue recognition and the unproven market readiness of the new platform as key concerns.

Volldal, for his part, is betting on a broader narrative shift. He has highlighted growing interest in decentralised energy generation and defence-related applications — positioning hydrogen not just as a climate technology but as a strategic tool for governments. Whether that pivot translates into concrete orders will become clearer when Nel reports second-quarter results on July 15. Until then, the stock's fate hinges on whether May 6 delivers more than just a technical promise.