Nel ASA’s 73% Order Slump Casts a Shadow Over Wednesday’s Platform Reveal

Nel ASA launches a new pressurized alkaline electrolyser platform on May 6, but Q1 revenue fell, order intake plunged 73%, and no analysts rate the stock a buy.

Nel ASA is about to unveil what it calls a decade-in-the-making breakthrough, but the numbers arriving alongside the fanfare tell a less celebratory story. The Norwegian electrolyser specialist will showcase its new pressurised alkaline platform on May 6 at the Herøya Industrial Park — a fully functional, physically installed unit rather than a slide-deck concept. The stock has already priced in the optimism, surging roughly 65 percent since the start of 2026 and hitting a fresh 52-week high of €0.32. Yet not a single one of the seven analysts covering the equity rates it a buy.

A Technology That Promises to Shrink Costs and Footprints

The new platform, developed since 2018 and tested with prototypes in Herøya, is built around a modular, factory-tested skid design that eliminates the need for dedicated buildings on many large-scale projects. CEO Håkon Volldal describes it as a “step forward” that will “set new standards.” The company claims the system will require 80 percent less floor space and cut capital expenditure by 40 to 60 percent compared with its existing technology, while operating costs should fall by 10 to 20 percent. Energy consumption is expected to drop below 50 kilowatt-hours per kilogram of hydrogen.

Nel has taken a final investment decision to build an initial 1 GW of production capacity at Herøya, with capital spending of roughly 300 million Norwegian kroner before subsidies — most of it hitting the books in 2026 and 2027. The first 500 MW should be operational by the end of this year, and the long-term target is 4 GW of annual output.

The European Union is backing the industrialisation of the platform with up to €135 million from its Innovation Fund, covering as much as 60 percent of relevant investment and operating costs. Nel expects to receive around €11 million of that in the second quarter alone.

Q1 Results Reveal a Business Under Pressure

The enthusiasm surrounding the launch sits uncomfortably alongside the first-quarter figures. Revenue slid to 152 million Norwegian kroner from 175 million a year earlier. EBITDA came in at minus 100 million kroner — 15 million better than the same period in 2025, but still deep in the red. The net loss narrowed to 144 million kroner from 179 million.

The most alarming metric is the order intake, which collapsed by 73 percent to just 85 million kroner. The order backlog shrank by 24 percent to 1.1 billion kroner. Nel has cut its workforce by roughly a quarter to stabilise costs, and the balance sheet carries the scars of a technology transition: the company’s two 500 MW production lines for atmospheric alkaline electrolysers in Herøya are sitting idle, and the launch of the new platform could trigger impairment charges on those assets. Nel posted a net loss of 1.27 billion kroner in 2025.

Cash Position Offers a Cushion, but Skepticism Runs Deep

Nel ended the first quarter with 1.4 billion kroner in cash, providing a meaningful buffer as it ramps up production. Samsung Engineering & Construction has held roughly 9.1 percent of the shares since March 2025, giving the company a powerful industrial backer.

The analyst community remains unconvinced. Berenberg’s James Carmichael maintained his neutral rating but cut his price target to 2.30 Norwegian kroner from 2.60. The consensus target across all analysts is 2.14 kroner — well below the current trading level — and the average recommendation is “Sell.”

Volldal is trying to reposition Nel’s narrative, shifting the emphasis from hydrogen as a pure climate solution toward energy security, decentralised power generation, and defence applications. He says the company is already in close discussions with multiple potential customers for deliveries following the launch, particularly for projects in the 50 to 150 MW range in Europe and North America.

Nel is also advancing its PEM technology, with two recent orders worth roughly $7 million each and a prototype expected to be completed this year. The commercial launch of that platform is pencilled in for 2028 or 2029.

The next major checkpoint comes on July 15, when Nel reports second-quarter results. By then, investors will know whether the platform launch has translated into actual orders — or whether the stock’s rally has been built on hope alone.