Nel ASA’s 52-Week High Masks a 73% Order Collapse as New Platform Launch Looms

Nel ASA stock surges 59% YTD to €0.30, but Q1 revenue falls 5% and order intake plunges 73%. New electrolyser platform promises cost cuts, yet idle assets risk impairment.

Nel ASA’s stock has rocketed to a fresh 52-week high of €0.30, extending its year-to-date rally to 59%. The market’s enthusiasm, however, sits in uneasy contrast with the underlying numbers from the first quarter of 2026. While the Oslo-based hydrogen specialist has made genuine progress in narrowing its losses, the order book tells a far more sobering story.

Revenue slipped 5% year-on-year to 148 million Norwegian kroner, but the headline figure that has investors most concerned is the order intake. New business collapsed by 73% to just 85 million NOK in the quarter, dragging the total order backlog down 24% to 1.11 billion NOK. Management has described the period as a quiet start to the year, though the selective approach to contract signing is yielding better margins on new projects.

The cost-cutting drive that has defined Nel’s recent strategy is beginning to show results. Headcount has been slashed by 26% from its peak, and personnel expenses fell by roughly a fifth compared with the same period last year. That austerity has helped shrink the net loss to 144 million NOK, an improvement from the 179 million NOK deficit recorded in the first quarter of 2025. The EBITDA picture also brightened, supported by higher margins and improved project execution.

A shift in product mix is underway beneath the surface. While the PEM electrolyser division saw revenues decline, the alkaline systems segment posted growth. The company is now pivoting hard toward modular, pressurised alkaline designs that promise to slash installation costs for customers. That technology takes centre stage on 6 May, when Nel unveils its new electrolyser platform at the Herøya facility — a system eight years in the making.

CEO Håkon Volldal has billed the launch as a milestone for the entire electrolyser segment. The new platform claims a 80% smaller footprint, capital expenditure reductions of 40% to 60%, and operating cost savings of 10% to 20%. Energy consumption is expected to dip below 50 kilowatt-hours per kilogram of hydrogen. The first gigawatt of production capacity will cost roughly 300 million NOK before subsidies, with an EU milestone grant expected to unlock an initial payment of more than €10 million. The initial 500 megawatts should be operational by the end of this year, with series deliveries slated for 2027.

The new platform, however, casts an uncomfortable shadow over existing assets. Two 500-MW production lines for atmospheric alkaline electrolysis currently sit idle at Herøya, and their fate remains unresolved. Whether they will be reactivated, sold, or shuttered is an open question. An impairment charge is a distinct possibility, coming on top of the 799 million NOK in writedowns already booked in the 2025 financial year.

Nel’s balance sheet provides some breathing room. Cash reserves stood at roughly 1.4 billion NOK at the end of March, enough to fund ongoing operations and the technology pivot. The company is also sticking to its delivery targets for 2027, even as the broader market for large-scale hydrogen projects continues to suffer delays.

The PEM division, for all its revenue weakness, has notched up two modest but strategically interesting wins. Mesure Process, a subsidiary of Synqo Energies, ordered containerised units for a European hydrogen refuelling station project. Separately, Douglas County Public Utility District in Washington State purchased electrolysers to absorb surplus hydropower and stabilise the grid. Each contract is worth around $7 million — small in absolute terms, but emblematic of a repositioning of hydrogen as an energy security tool rather than purely a climate technology.

Analysts remain cautious despite the stock’s blistering run. Berenberg has trimmed its price target to 2.30 NOK, while Citigroup has cut to 2.40 NOK, both citing valuation risks even as sentiment improves. The 6 May product reveal will need to demonstrate that the promised cost reductions are substantive. The next real test comes on 15 July, when second-quarter results will show whether the new strategy is gaining commercial traction.