Nel ASA’s 50% Rally Hides a Still-Unprofitable Core

Norwegian electrolyser maker Nel ASA rallies on new pressurized alkaline platform and EU funding, but weak order intake and persistent losses keep investors cautious ahead of Q2 results.

Nel ASA has stormed back from its lowest point of the year, but the numbers tell a story of two halves. The Norwegian electrolyser maker’s shares have surged roughly 50% since the start of 2025, yet the underlying business remains firmly in the red — a gap that investors are watching closely ahead of second-quarter results on 15 July.

A new platform fans the flames

The latest leg of the rally was sparked in early May, when Nel unveiled its new pressurised alkaline electrolyser platform after eight years of development. The company has set a turnkey cost target of under $1,450 per kilowatt for 25-MW installations, with further savings expected at larger scale. The technology launch initially triggered a “sell-the-news” pullback, but the stock has since recovered and now trades at €0.29 on Tradegate, up roughly 2.9% on Thursday with elevated volume.

That price sits comfortably above the 200-day moving average of €0.20 — a bullish signal for technically inclined traders. The 52-week high of €0.32, set on 5 May, is still about 9% away. Analysts at StockInvest.us have upgraded their rating from “Hold” to “Buy candidate”, citing short-term technical indicators and an intact uptrend.

Weak orders undercut the optimism

While the new platform has generated headlines, the order book tells a more cautious story. Nel reported a decline in order intake during the first quarter, a weak spot that tempers enthusiasm around the product launch. The company’s US subsidiary did land a $7 million contract for PEM electrolysers in late April, and the broader sector got a lift earlier this week when Plug Power surged more than 8% after reporting quarterly revenue of $163.5 million. Such moves often act as a sentiment lever across hydrogen stocks.

But Nel’s own financials remain under pressure. The first-quarter EBITDA loss narrowed to NOK 100 million, a year-on-year improvement but still deeply negative. The consensus estimate among analysts calls for a loss of NOK 0.23 per share for the full year 2026, though they have been nudging their forecasts higher in recent weeks.

Capacity build-out and EU backing

On the industrial side, Nel is expanding production at its Herøya facility in Norway. The near-term target is an annual capacity of 1 GW, with a long-term ambition of 4 GW. The European Union is supporting the expansion with a grant of up to €135 million from the EU Innovation Fund, covering roughly 60% of eligible industrialisation costs. That state aid provides a buffer while the company works toward commercial scale.

The valuation paradox

Nel’s enterprise-value-to-sales multiple for the current year is estimated at 5.68, while its price-to-earnings ratio stands at minus 12.3 — a stark reminder that profitability remains elusive. RBC Capital Markets rates the stock “Sector Perform” with a price target of NOK 3, suggesting limited upside after the recent run. The shares closed Wednesday in Oslo at NOK 3.025, giving a market capitalisation of roughly NOK 5.56 billion.

A recent study pegs the global green hydrogen electrolyser market at $35.27 billion by 2032, yet DNV has slashed its long-term forecast for clean hydrogen by 45%, underscoring the gap between ambition and delivery. For Nel, project delays and policy lags mean that even a large addressable market won’t automatically translate into earnings.

Technicals suggest room to run — for now

Despite a 47% gain over the past 30 days, the stock does not look overbought. The relative strength index sits at 32.2, still in the lower neutral zone. That leaves technical room for further upside, but high volatility remains part of the package.

The real test comes on 15 July, when Nel reports second-quarter numbers. If the new electrolyser platform begins to generate commercial traction and order momentum picks up, the rally could gain fundamental backing. If not, the 50% year-to-date advance will look increasingly reliant on hope rather than hard numbers.