Nel ASA’s 26% Weekly Slide Puts Stock at a Technical Crossroads Ahead of US Inflation Data

Nel ASA shares crashed 13%, hitting the 50-day moving average after a seven-session selloff erased 30% of value. Orders plunged 73% YoY, net loss narrowed. Focus shifts to US inflation data.

Nel ASA finds itself pinned against a key technical level after a brutal seven-session selloff erased more than a quarter of its market value. The Norwegian electrolyser maker closed at €0.26 on Friday — a near?13% single?day decline that took the shares to exactly their 50?day moving average, a level that now serves as the first line of defence.

The slide, which accelerated without any company?specific catalyst, leaves the stock 30% below the 52?week high of €0.37 hit just two weeks earlier. On 25 May, Nel unveiled its new pressurised?alkaline platform, CompassH2?A+, at the World Hydrogen Summit in Rotterdam, promising materially lower investment costs per megawatt and a target of 500 MW of installed production capacity by end?2026. The market greeted the news with euphoria — and has been correcting ever since.

Orders tell a sobering story

Behind the technical retreat lies a deteriorating fundamental picture. Nel’s first?quarter report showed order intake plunging 73% year?on?year to just 85 million Norwegian kroner. The order backlog shrank 24% from Q1 2025 to 1.1 billion kroner. Revenue fell to 152 million kroner, while EBITDA remained deep in the red at minus 100 million kroner. The net loss did narrow from 179 million to 144 million kroner, offering a modest silver lining.

Management has tried to strike a confident tone. CEO Håkon Volldal pointed to a roughly 70 million kroner order already booked in the second quarter, plus a $7 million PEM order in April. “The dynamics in PEM continue — we signed a good order in Q2 and expect a few more by the half?year end,” he said on the Q1 call.

Nel’s balance sheet provides some cushion. The company ended the first quarter with cash of 1.4 billion kroner and expects to receive an €11 million EU grant for industrialising its pressurised?alkaline technology during the current quarter. Strategic backing from Samsung E&A, which holds a board seat, adds a layer of institutional support. Hydrogen?linked ETFs also provide structural demand: the Global X Hydrogen ETF and its European equivalent together hold over 30 million Nel shares, each with a portfolio weighting of around 5%.

A quiet period shifts focus to macro data

With the company now in a two?week silent period ahead of its half?year results on 15 July, investor attention pivots to the macroeconomic calendar. The US Labour Department releases May consumer price data on Tuesday, followed by producer prices on Wednesday. For a capital?intensive sector like green hydrogen, where valuations are sensitive to discount rates and the interest?rate outlook, the inflation numbers carry outsized weight. Hotter?than?expected prints would increase pressure on clean?tech project financing; softer readings could provide speculative relief.

The technical setup remains ambiguous. The relative strength index sits at 40.5, close to but not yet in oversold territory. The annualised 30?day volatility of roughly 105% underscores the violent swings that can occur in either direction. If the €0.26 level — the 50?day moving average — breaks, the 200?day moving average at €0.21 becomes the next reference point.

July 15 as the true test

Nel’s share price has held a year?to?date gain of roughly 35% despite the recent rout, but the next decisive move hinges on the 15 July half?year report. That is when the market will learn whether the CompassH2?A+ platform is translating into real commercial traction or whether the May surge was merely a product?announcement spike without substance. Volldal’s promise that the H1 numbers will show whether the 2026 recovery is built on solid foundations now faces its first serious credibility check.