Nel ASA's 26% Weekly Rout Puts 50-Day Moving Average to the Test

Nel ASA slides 26% to €0.26, testing 50-day moving average, as hydrogen profit-taking and macro uncertainty weigh. Next support at €0.21. No near-term catalysts.

Friday’s session left Nel ASA nursing a 12.79% loss to close at €0.26, capping a seven-day slide of 26% that wiped out a chunk of the year’s earlier gains. Notably absent was a company-specific trigger: the selloff swept the entire hydrogen complex, dragging down peers such as ITM Power, Plug Power, and Ballard Power Systems in what market observers described as profit-taking after a volatile rally in clean-energy names, compounded by a “sell-the-news” reaction to MSCI index changes affecting ITM Power.

The closing price of €0.26 places the stock precisely on its 50-day moving average, a level that now serves as the immediate battleground. Should that support fail, the next technical anchor lies at the 200-day moving average of €0.21, around 19% below current levels. From the 52-week high of €0.37 reached in late May, the stock has already retreated nearly 30%. Still, on a year-to-date basis the equity remains roughly 35% in the black, and the relative strength index of 40.5 — while signalling waning momentum — has not yet entered oversold territory. With annualised 30-day volatility hovering near 105%, the shares remain highly reactive to both sector winds and macro data.

The macro calendar is packed for the week ahead. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics releases May consumer price data on Tuesday, followed by producer prices on Wednesday. At the same time, the European Central Bank holds its policy meeting on June 10-11, with a press conference scheduled for the second day. Interest rate expectations have an outsized impact on speculative growth stocks, and clean-energy plays are no exception: higher-for-longer borrowing costs raise discount rates on long-duration project valuations, while a softer inflation reading could rekindle risk appetite for the sector.

Nel’s most recent quarterly numbers, released in late April, are becoming a familiar reference point but may gain renewed attention depending on how the macro backdrop shapes sentiment. First-quarter revenue came in at 148 million Norwegian kroner, down 5% year-on-year. EBITDA stood at minus 100 million kroner — an improvement of 15 million kroner versus the prior-year period, but still deep in the red. More concerning was order intake of just 85 million kroner, a 73% plunge from the same quarter last year. The order backlog fell to 1.113 billion kroner, 24% lower than in Q1 2025. On the balance sheet side, the company holds 1.443 billion kroner in cash, providing a buffer as the business works to rebuild commercial traction.

There is no fresh corporate catalyst on the immediate horizon. Nel’s next scheduled milestone is the half-year report due on July 15, and the company is currently in a two-week quiet period that precludes investor-facing management communication. That leaves the macro calendar as the dominant driver for the sessions ahead. Tuesday’s CPI print and Wednesday’s PPI release will be closely watched for any surprises that could shift the interest-rate outlook and, by extension, the valuation of hydrogen equities.

For Nel, the €0.26 level — coinciding with the 50-day average — is the first line of defence. A decisive break below it would open the path toward the 200-day average at €0.21, a zone that previously marked a recovery floor earlier this year. If the level holds, the longer-term upward trend remains intact, but the stock’s high volatility and sensitivity to sector sentiment mean the next few trading sessions will be crucial. Until the half-year release in July, macro data will act as the primary compass for a stock caught between a cash-rich balance sheet and a sharply weakened order pipeline.