Nel ASA’s $1,450/ kW Electrolyser Pitch Runs Into a Downgrade and Persistent Losses

Nel ASA's new alkaline electrolyser aims to cut system costs below $1,450/kW, but Q1 losses and analyst downgrades temper optimism. Stock up 50% in 30 days.

Nel ASA’s announcement on May 6 of a new pressurised alkaline electrolyser system targeting system costs below $1,450 per kilowatt for a 25 MW plant was meant to reset the investment case. The Norwegian hydrogen specialist has spent more than eight years developing and testing a full-scale prototype, and the commercial launch aims to tackle the industry’s biggest bottleneck — project economics that have often hovered near $3,000/kW or higher. Yet the market response has been characteristically mixed: the stock rose 2.34% on the day to NOK 3.06 in Oslo, but the rally came with a technical downgrade from StockInvest.us, which moved Nel to “Hold/Accumulate” from “Buy.”

The divergence underscores a deeper tension. Nel’s new platform, if it scales as promised, would improve the business case for hydrogen projects and could accelerate the shift from planning to real investment. But the company’s first-quarter numbers show the underlying business isn’t there yet. Revenue from customer contracts fell 5% to NOK 148 million, while the EBITDA loss widened to NOK 100 million — matching the figure that StockInvest.us highlighted in its own analysis of a net loss of NOK 143.72 million. The order backlog stood at NOK 1.113 billion, offering some visibility, but the order intake declined, raising questions about commercial momentum.

The share price has rallied sharply anyway. Over the past 30 trading days, Nel has gained 50.42% in euro terms (48.32% in NOK), pushing its year-to-date advance to 49.71% (47.63% in NOK). The stock now trades about 10% below its recent high of EUR 0.32, and its medium-term moving averages are all pointing higher. The relative strength index at 37.0, however, suggests there is room to run before the stock becomes overbought — a reading that StockInvest.us also flagged as supporting a “Hold/Accumulate” stance rather than a full “Buy.”

The analyst consensus paints a far less rosy picture. Yahoo Finance’s average target sits at NOK 2.12, well below the current price, while RBC Capital Markets rates the stock “Sector Perform” with a fair value of NOK 3.00 — a level the shares have already exceeded. StockInvest.us’s own range for the next quarter runs from NOK 3.18 to NOK 4.68, reflecting the extreme volatility that makes Nel a high-risk play. The annualised swing of 89.90% and a beta of 1.32 mean the stock is more sensitive to macro shifts in energy prices and inflation data than to its own fundamentals.

Nel is not alone in facing headwinds. Rival HydrogenPro saw its shares crash 19.80% on the same day after reporting just NOK 16 million in revenue, a negative EBITDA of NOK 32 million, and cash of NOK 56 million. Meanwhile, competitors are advancing their own electrolyser technologies: Elcogen launched the elcoStack E3000 G2 this week, claiming 33 kWh per kilogram of hydrogen in electrolysis mode, and Topsoe opened a 500 MW-per-year SOEC factory in Herning back in October 2025. The pressure on Nel to convert its new platform into binding orders and better margins is mounting.

Technically, the Oslo-listed shares face immediate support at NOK 2.96 and resistance at NOK 3.22, levels that traders will watch closely as the second-quarter reporting date of July 15 approaches. By then, the market will be looking for evidence that the new electrolyser is gaining commercial traction — and that the recent decline in order intake has been reversed. Until those signals materialise, Nel’s cost breakthrough remains a promise that the balance sheet has yet to match.