Nel ASA's $1,450/ kW Electrolyser Bet Meets a 73% Order Wipeout

Nel ASA's new pressurized alkaline electrolyser promises system costs under $1,450/kW, yet Q1 order intake collapsed 73% and cash burn persists; stock rallied 57% YTD on tech optimism.

The narrative around Nel ASA has rarely been more divided. On one side, the Norwegian hydrogen specialist just unveiled a new pressurised alkaline electrolyser platform that it claims can deliver fully installed system costs below $1,450 per kilowatt — a potential game-changer in an industry where $3,000/kW is still common. On the other, its first-quarter order intake collapsed 73% year-on-year, leaving a backlog of just 1.1 billion Norwegian kroner, down 24% from the prior quarter.

The market, for now, is siding with the technology story. Nel's shares jumped 8.6% in Oslo on Friday to 3.285 NOK, marking the fourth consecutive positive session. In euro terms, the stock has rallied 42.3% over the past month and now stands at €0.30 — roughly 48% above its 200-day moving average. Since the start of the year, the gain is an even steeper 57%.

But beneath the price action lies a business still bleeding cash. Nel posted Q1 2026 customer revenues of 148 million kroner, down 5% from a year earlier, while EBITDA came in at minus 100 million kroner. That is a 15-million improvement on the year-ago loss, but it leaves the company burning through its cash pile of around 1.4 billion kroner — a cushion the company says will last until the end of 2026.

The two key levers Nel is pulling are cost and capacity. The new electrolyser platform, launched on 6 May after more than eight years of development at the Herøya facility, targets system cost reductions of 40–60% compared with conventional atmospheric alkaline solutions. For a 25-MW reference plant, Nel quotes total installed costs under $1,450 per kW, with further savings expected at larger scales. The company plans to reach an annual production capacity of 1 GW at Herøya following a final investment decision expected by end-2025, with a longer-term target of 4 GW per year.

Yet the order book tells a sobering story. The 73% plunge in order intake during the first quarter was followed by two modest bright spots: a pair of purchase agreements in the PEM segment signed shortly after the quarter closed, each worth roughly $7 million. One came from Mesure Process, a subsidiary of Synqo Energies and already a repeat customer; the other was from the Douglas County Public Utility District in Washington state — Nel's first-ever sale of a green hydrogen plant to a public utility.

The workforce has shrunk by about a quarter to roughly 300 employees, trimming personnel costs by 21% in Q1. Nel says it can scale headcount back up as orders materialise, but the timing remains uncertain.

Meanwhile, a further risk looms at Herøya. The company is reviewing the carrying value of two idled production lines originally built for atmospheric alkaline electrolysers. An impairment charge could follow, adding to the 799 million kroner in writedowns already taken in 2025. Book value pressure is mounting even as the new platform ramps up.

StockInvest.us upgraded Nel from "Hold" to "Buy candidate" on 13 May, citing an improving short-term trend and a buy signal on the three-month MACD. The RSI of 32.2 suggests the rally still has room before becoming overbought. Key support is seen around 2.96 NOK.

All eyes now turn to 15 July, when Nel publishes its half-year report. By then, the question will be whether the new platform can convert early client discussions into firm purchase orders — the only metric that can turn this rally into something more than a vote of confidence in a cheaper electrolyser.