Nel ASA Resolves Legal Claim with Iwatani as Investors Brace for US Inflation Data

Nel ASA pays $7.5M to settle Iwatani lawsuit over hydrogen station tech, but shares slide 26% in a week amid macro headwinds from upcoming CPI and ECB decisions.

Norway’s Nel ASA has drawn a line under a long-running legal dispute in California, agreeing to pay $7.5 million to settle claims brought by Iwatani Corporation of America over hydrogen refuelling station technology. The deal, announced on 7 June, also involves Cavendish Hydrogen ASA and removes a specific piece of litigation risk that had hung over the company’s US operations. Yet the timing of the settlement leaves the stock facing a very different kind of pressure: a macro-driven week that could determine whether its recent slide deepens or finds a floor.

The agreement resolves technical and operational issues tied to hydrogen station infrastructure in California, an area where reliability has been as critical as the technology itself. By settling, Nel avoids further legal costs and limits its exposure to a lawsuit that touched on a sensitive part of its business. Both companies have indicated they remain committed to expanding the hydrogen refuelling sector and have left the door open for future collaboration — a signal that the dispute has not poisoned the relationship.

Investors, however, appear unimpressed. The stock closed at €0.26 on Friday after shedding 12.79 per cent in a single session, bringing the week’s total loss to 26 per cent. That steep decline occurred on the same day the settlement was disclosed, suggesting the legal resolution was overshadowed by broader selling pressure. Despite the rout, Nel shares are still up 35.11 per cent year-to-date and 23.10 per cent higher over the past twelve months — a reminder of how violently the equity has swung. The annualised 30-day volatility stands at 104.96 per cent.

Technically, the picture is finely balanced. Friday’s close sits virtually on top of the 50-day moving average, also at €0.26, while the stock remains roughly 22.5 per cent above the 200-day line of €0.21. The relative strength index of 40.5 suggests the selloff has not yet reached deeply oversold territory, leaving room for further downside. If the €0.26 level breaks, the next support is the 200-day average at €0.21.

Nel itself has no company-specific events on the calendar for the week starting 8 June. The next scheduled catalyst is the half-year report due on 15 July, followed by the quarterly update on 21 October. Management observes a quiet period two weeks before each earnings release, meaning investor communications will remain limited until mid-July. For now, the stock is effectively at the mercy of external forces.

The most critical of those arrives on 10 June, when both the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and Statistics Norway release their May consumer price indices. Inflation readings have an outsized impact on capital-intensive clean-tech names like Nel because they shape interest-rate expectations and, by extension, the discount rates applied to long-duration growth stocks. The following day, the European Central Bank holds its rate-setting meeting in Frankfurt. Any signal on future monetary policy is likely to move European industrial and renewable-energy equities, Nel included.

Broader industry dynamics provide the structural backdrop. Global installed electrolyser capacity has reached 3.7 GW, with more than 2.1 GW of that added since the start of 2025, according to S&P Global. The European Commission’s Hydrogen Bank, in its third auction, allocated over €1 billion to nine projects that together represent nearly 1.1 GW of capacity. Yet the Hydrogen Council continues to call for faster implementation of existing policy frameworks, particularly in Europe. For Nel shareholders, the gap between subsidy commitments and real-world project conversion remains a source of uncertainty.

The week ahead will test whether the settlement’s removal of a legal overhang can offset the drag from macro headwinds and a sector that is struggling to turn promises into orders. A hold of the €0.26 level would offer a tentative stabilisation signal after the seven-day rout; a decisive break lower would put the 200-day average firmly in focus.