Nel ASA Pays $7.5M to End Iwatani Dispute as Shares Test Make-or-Break Support

Norwegian hydrogen firm pays $7.5M to settle US lawsuit, stock edges up 3.13% to €0.21. But order intake plummets 73%, and analysts remain cautious ahead of July 15 report.

Nel ASA has closed a costly legal chapter. The Norwegian hydrogen specialist agreed to pay Iwatani Corporation $7.5 million to settle a US lawsuit, removing an overhang just days before its half-year report lands on July 15. The settlement drains cash—the company holds roughly 1.4 billion Norwegian kroner—but buys time for a management team that currently lacks a permanent chief executive.

Investors gave the news a cautious nod. On Friday, the stock edged up 3.13% to close at €0.21. The gain snapped a brutal run that has seen the shares lose nearly 32% in the past 30 days. That monthly rout has dragged the price down more than 40% from the May high of €0.37, though it remains above the February trough. The annualised volatility of 67% tells the story of a market caught between bouts of euphoria and exhaustion.

Technically, the stock is glued to its 200-day moving average. That line, currently around €0.21, has acted as a support zone, with the relative strength index sitting at 38.8—not deeply oversold but lacking conviction. The shares also trade about 20% below their 50-day average, confirming a short-term downtrend. Whether €0.21 holds could determine if Nel stabilises or slides further.

That precarious chart sits alongside a sharp disconnect between technology and sales. Nel recently unveiled a new electrolyser platform that it says can slash production costs to under $1,450 per kilowatt for a 25-megawatt plant—roughly half the current industry benchmark. Yet customer orders are evaporating. First-quarter order intake collapsed 73% year-on-year to just 85 million kroner. The gap between engineering breakthroughs and signed contracts has made professional investors wary.

Analyst James Carmichael of Berenberg rates the stock neutral with a price target of 2.30 kroner. No analyst on the Street currently recommends buying Nel. The market capitalisation of around €388 million (roughly €380 million in some estimates) underscores how small a player Nel remains in a fiercely contested hydrogen arena.

The company’s fortunes are heavily tied to public subsidies. Nel has lined up as much as €135 million from the EU Innovation Fund for its next-generation electrolyser platform, with a first tranche of €10 million expected in the second quarter of 2026. Such dependency on political timelines means the sector’s rhythm is set by grant approvals and project delays rather than quarterly earnings. The July 15 report will therefore serve as a stress test: the market will be watching for concrete contract wins that justify the technology spend and the cash buffer. Without them, even a clean legal slate may not be enough to halt the selling pressure.