Nel ASA: Investors Bet on Tomorrow as Today's Numbers Tell a Different Story

Nel ASA stock jumps nearly 14% despite weak Q1 results, driven by upcoming pressurised alkaline electrolyser platform unveiling on May 6, 2026, promising major cost cuts.

Nel ASA shares surged nearly 14% on the last trading day of April, closing at 2.92 Norwegian kroner — just shy of a 52-week high of 2.938 kroner. The rally came despite a first-quarter report that showed declining revenue, a widening net loss, and a dramatic 73% plunge in order intake. For investors, the message was clear: the future matters more than the present.

The hydrogen specialist reported customer revenue of 148 million Norwegian kroner for the first quarter of 2026, down 5% from the same period last year. The net loss narrowed to 144 million kroner from 179 million kroner a year earlier, while EBITDA remained deep in negative territory at minus 100 million kroner — though that represented a 15 million kroner improvement year-on-year.

Cost-cutting is driving the modest operational improvement. Nel has reduced its workforce by roughly a fifth, slashing personnel expenses by 21%. The company described the first quarter as traditionally a weak period for new orders, with order intake falling to just 85 million kroner. The total order backlog stood at 1.1 billion kroner at the end of March.

The company's liquidity position — 1.4 billion kroner in cash reserves — provides breathing room. And a post-quarter order for containerised PEM electrolysers worth $7 million offered a signal that demand for the technology hasn't dried up entirely.

But the real catalyst for the share price surge is a date on the calendar: May 6, 2026. That's when Nel will unveil its new pressurised alkaline electrolyser platform at its Herøya facility. CEO Håkon Volldal has called it a "milestone for the entire electrolyser segment." The technology promises to slash capital expenditure by 40% to 60% and reduce operating costs by 10% to 20%. Tests have proceeded according to plan.

The company has secured EU grants of up to 135 million euros to support the platform's development, covering roughly 60% of eligible costs. An additional 11 million euros in EU funding is expected to flow in the second quarter to help finance industrialisation. Larger-scale deliveries are slated to begin in 2027.

There's a catch, however. Two existing production lines at Herøya are currently idle, and the launch of the new platform could trigger write-downs on those legacy assets.

Analyst sentiment remains cautious. Berenberg cut its price target in March from 2.60 to 2.30 Norwegian kroner, though it maintained its rating. The consensus analyst target sits at around 2.22 kroner, with estimates ranging from 1.20 to 4.20 kroner — a wide spread that reflects the deep uncertainty surrounding the company's trajectory.

Nel is also exploring new markets. Volldal highlighted hydrogen's potential role in energy security and decentralised power supply during the earnings presentation, including defence-related applications. The company is targeting deliveries to European hydrogen refuelling stations and industrial customers from 2027 onward.

For now, the market is pricing in the promise of the new platform rather than the reality of the current losses. The presentation on May 6 will test whether that bet is justified. The next hard reality check comes on July 15, when Nel reports its half-year results.